July 3, 2021
Well it is early Saturday evening and we now have a pretty good idea what Elsa is going to do. After a brief run as a hurricane Elsa is now a tropical storm and has begun a turn towards the northwest. There is still some track uncertainty and the current forecast cone captures the possibilities well, although there is some wider spread still in some of the models. Regarding intensity, Elsa should remain a tropical storm through about 48 hours. After that decreasing land interaction and wind shear could allow some restrengthening, but I think category 1 strength would be the top end as things look now.
Some of us are on the fringe but I don't think anyone on the list is in the path of the storm unless you're traveling. No need to be overly concerned at this point but we should keep an eye out just in case something changes.
I'm going to watch how the forecast progresses but this will likely be my last update unless there is a significant change. If you happen to be closer to the storm and you have any questions let me know.
Have a great 4th of July!
Chris
