Severe Weather Possible Today for NW AL and Middle to Eastern TN

February 22, 2022

Another round of severe weather is on tap today but it won't be as active as we saw last week. The SPC is indicating a slight chance of severe weather for the Huntsville area and middle TN with a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds, and 5% chance of hail. The area a bit farther to the east-southeast including the Birmingham and greater Chattanooga areas is in a marginal risk area with a 2% chance of a tornado and a 5% damaging wind risk. Severe timing looks to be from afternoon through evening for the Huntsville area, evening through midnight for Birmingham, and late evening through the morning on Wednesday for eastern TN.

Along with the severe weather risk quite a bit of rain can be expected with parts of northern AL in a moderate excessive rainfall risk area and the surrounding region in a slight risk area. Rainfall totals through three days are shown. Note that us to the south and along the coast stay mostly dry.

Cool and dry(er) weather returns early next week to finish out February and bring us into teh first week of March. We're starting to get into spring so it won't be particularly cold but it will be below average with rainfall below average as well.

Something I've been wanting to get better at is keeping track of how each forecast went. Below is the storm report map for last Thursday. As far as severe reports the numbers are fairly close to what you'd expect given the risk level that day but notably absent are reports from NW AL closer to the center of where the enhanced risk area was. It seems the worst of the weather formed right along the southeastern edge of the enhanced area with the severe weather event starting a bit later than expected.

We might see another round of severe weather from Friday through the weekend before the cool weather arrives but I don't think it'll be quite as organized as we'll see today. I'll let you know if that materializes.

Have a good week.

Chris

Severe Risk Increased to Enhanced for Huntsville Area

February 17, 2022

The SPC has increased the risk to enhanced for the Huntsville, AL and areas of AL to the south-southwest and west and then north through middle TN. This area also just touches the Birmingham metro. In this area there is a 30% chance of damaging winds and 10% tornado chance, with significant tornadoes (EF-2 or stronger) possible. The rest of the forecast including timing remains mostly the same as yesterday. Expect possible severe weather in the afternoon-evening for areas to the north and then later into the overnight hours farther east-southeast.

If you're in one of the higher threat areas make sure you have a plan and a means of receiving multiple alerts.

Have a good day and a good rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow Afternoon Through Late Evening

February 16, 2022

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for most of the southeast for tomorrow. All severe modes are possible with the greatest threats being damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two. The highest tornado threat (5% chance) looks to be in the western half of Alabama (excluding the coast) and middle TN with the higher damaging wind risk (15% chance) extending a bit more to the northeast into eastern TN with a lesser tornado threat (2% chance) in this region as well, a 5% chance of damaging winds extends towards the coast. Timing looks to be afternoon through late night/early morning with the threat ending earlier in the west and persisting later in the east as a cold front moves through the region.

Timing (from AlabamaWX)

Limited surface heating and some other factors will likely limit the severe threat from this system especially farther to the southeast but any areas in the slight risk region that do receive some sun followed by storm development are more likely to see severe weather. Shouldn't be a major event but as always be aware and have a plan. I'll provide an update tomorrow as needed.

Chris

Severe Threat for Today Increased To Slight

February 3, 2022

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the threat level today to slight and has expanded the marginal threat area a bit. The slight region covers approximately what the marginal region covered yesterday, with the new marginal region now as far east as Panama City and as far north as the AL/TN line. Within the slight region there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds, and a 5% hail chance. In the marginal region these decrease to 2% tornado and 5% damaging wind chances, with no hail expected. Timing is about the same as yesterday but I have included local graphics that show more specifics. The area from Destin east to Panama City can expect the severe threat to be in the late afternoon through the late evening.

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Birmingham Area

Even though the threat level has increased we're still looking at mostly isolated occurrences of severe weather.

Stay safe and have a good day.

Chris

Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Tomorrow for Central AL South to the Coast

February 2, 2022

It's been a few weeks since the weather has been active enough for me to send an update. The SPC has issued a marginal risk of severe weather from about Birmingham south through Destin and then west out of our region. The main threat will be a 5% chance of damaging winds with a 2% tornado and 5% hail chance confined near the Mobile-Pensacola area and SW AL. Scattered showers will be possible today and overnight but the severe threat doesn't look to get started until about mid day tomorrow for the western part of the region and then early afternoon for areas further to the south and east. The severe threat should end around sunset for the Birmingham-Montgomery area but it may linger into the late evening and perhaps early morning hours near the coast, ending later west to east.

Rain will linger into Friday clearing Friday evening in the Birmingham area and then by Saturday morning along the coast. Rainfall totals are below. Expect cooler weather to follow but not as cold as we have had recently.

That's it for today, I'll let you know if anything changes.

Have a great rest of the week.

Chris