Severe Weather Possible to Likely Tomorrow

 February 15, 2023

The active weather pattern continues and for this round some areas will see a higher severe weather threat than over the past few weeks. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an enhanced (orange) risk for severe weather for the northern two thirds of western Alabama and central Tennessee with a slight (yellow) risk area extending to the east a bit and south to the coast. A marginal (dark green) risk area covers a small area a bit farther east. The entire enhanced risk area includes a 30% damaging wind risk with a portion including an elevated tornado and hail risk (10% with EF2 or stronger tornadoes possible and 15% respectively) and with the rest of the area including a 5% tornado risk and 5% hail risk. The slight risk area includes a 15% chance of damaging winds with part of the area also including 5% tornado and hail risks. Lesser tornado and damaging wind risks extend into the marginal risk area. 

Storms will be ongoing near a cold front across Louisiana and Arkansas Thursday morning. This activity is expected to increase and become potentially to likely severe later in the morning through the afternoon and evening as it moves east in the presence of daytime heating and strong moisture flow off the Gulf. The severe weather potential is expected to decrease as heating wanes into the evening hours. Regional timing graphics are shown below.

Huntsville

Montgomery-Birmingham

Mobile-Pensacola

Destin-Panama City

Regarding the forecast for last weekend there wasn't much in the way of severe weather (just one report, albeit for a tornado). I think we ended up with three systems moving through instead of two which extended the rain into Saturday much longer than I initially expected it to.

The event tomorrow has the potential to be a bit stronger than we've seen recently so don't let your guard down especially if you're in or near the enhanced region. After the weather clears late Thursday into Friday expect cool weather followed by a warming trend to start the week.

Have a good rest of the week and weekend.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tonight Through Friday

February 8, 2023

I hope everyone has been enjoying the great weather we've been having the last few days! Starting tonight the mild and dry conditions are going to give way to rainy and stormy weather lasting maybe through early Saturday. Severe weather is possible starting tonight and lasting through Friday as two different systems move through. Currently the severe threat isn't high for our region but since it will be going on for multiple days and cover a larger area I thought I should make you aware of it.

Severe timing will be tonight through the early morning for western Alabama and the western portion of the Florida Panhandle followed by additional chances of severe storms along the coast tomorrow morning through very early Friday morning. The main hazard is damaging winds with an isolated tornado possible as well.

Isolated showers are just starting to move into southwest Alabama and will continue to spread to the north-northeast throughout the rest of the afternoon and early evening. These showers may spread into Tennessee in the late evening but otherwise it will clear up across the area until early morning. The next round of showers and storms will move into the Birmingham area around 3 a.m. and into the Florida Panhandle maybe an hour later with the system spreading east throughout the day. By mid-afternoon or early evening the first front will be clear of areas from about Montgomery north but it will linger along the coast through early Friday. By mid morning Friday the second system will sweep through much faster with the weather clearing late Friday or early Saturday.

Day 1 Outlook (rest of today through 7 a.m. tomorrow)

Birmingham Area Timing (tonight through tomorrow morning)

Mobile-Pensacola Area Timing ( tonight through tomorrow morning)

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Thursday through 7 a.m. Friday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Friday through 7 a.m. Saturday)

Other than multiple days of rain and storms I don't think there will be any major impacts other than a few isolated severe storms that may occur across the region. Rainfall totals could approach the 2-3" range especially near the coast and that may bring some minor impacts as well. Cool weather will follow on Sunday and Monday followed by another (possibly multi-day) weather system moving in late Monday or early Tuesday 

Rainfall for the next three days (I forgot to include this on my email).

The last severe weather event on the 29th was a bust, not a single severe weather report. There was another one a few days after that (I forget which day now) that also had no reports.

Stay safe and have a great end of the week and weekend.

Chris