Tropical Weather Update

July 26, 2023

Synopsis: no short term concerns (last week's wave will not develop), maybe some stormy weather in the Gulf or near-coastal areas this weekend. Also, there's another tropical wave out east that may develop early next week (30% chance, see below), probably not a threat to the Gulf if it does develop but something to watch.

Diving a bit deeper, the tropical wave that I mentioned last Wednesday was up to a 70% chance of development at one point and has now dropped off the outlook completely. Non-development was the general expectation despite the system looking like it was close to developing Friday and Saturday.

I don't have much more to say about the new tropical wave east of the African coast. There is not yet a consensus with the models if this will develop or not and those that do take the storm on a track that would probably keep it out of the Gulf. It's something to watch as always but it's too far out in the future to have any concerns.

Below is what the 7-Day Outlook looked like yesterday. You can see the wave from last week (now in the Caribbean) before it dropped off the outlook. You can also see a feature east of the Bahamas. This low pressure area was identified on one of Monday's outlooks and then was dropped early this morning. I'm bringing this up because a few models are hinting that this area (which still exists, it's just not a tropical threat) may bring some stormy weather to the Florida Peninsula and then the Panhandle and adjacent areas as it drifts west through the weekend. I don't think current rain changes are reflecting this possibility and the Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, and Southern Alabama areas may see more precip coverage Saturday and Sunday (maybe into next week if it stalls) than is currently forecast. This is far from certain at this point, just something to keep in mind as we get closer to the weekend. Either way, no major impacts are expected. 

That's it for today. I mainly wanted to follow up on last week's update and point out that there may be a few more showers along the coast this weekend as well as point out the next tropical wave moving across the Atlantic.

Have a good rest of the week and a great weekend.

Chris

Tropical Weather Update - Low Chance of Development Next Week

July 19, 2023

It has been almost a month since my last weather update. The tropics have been quiet (other than Don way out in the Atlantic) and while the weather in the Southeast has been notable at times I wouldn't have been telling you anything you didn't already know.

I've been wanting to write a tropical weather update as there has been much discussion but with activity being low in the Atlantic I thought I'd wait until there was something less speculative to discuss (as there is today). The yellow area on the 7-Day Outlook below is a tropical wave that has a 20% chance of development according to the National Hurricane Center. Various models and ensembles have been suggesting this wave might develop around early next week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and this is what the NHC forecast is indicating. Right now it's too far out in time to be concerned about but it may be something to start paying more attention to in a week's time. In the short term at least it's going to be battling some adverse conditions as it moves west but that may change some by the weekend.

The real item I've wanted to discuss is what to expect for the rest of the season. Without going into too many details there are conflicting indications (and ideas) of what is in store for the rest of the season. On the one hand, the presence of a developing El Nino usually suppresses hurricane activity. On the other hand, virtually the entire North Atlantic is much warmer than average (see below). The thinking is that this additional heat may offset some of the negative impacts of El Nino. This has been reflected in some long term models as well as some seasonal forecasts. Colorado State University has increased its forecast for the season to "average" activity, up from the below average forecast they predicted in the spring. Other forecasters and groups have done the same with some even expecting an above average season. With that said there are still quite a few forecasters who either expect El Nino to still dominate and suppress activity or who are more in a "wait and see" frame of mind. As a somewhat subjective general consensus, average to below average activity from here on out seems reasonable at this point but that could go the other way. 

Another factor in this that I've read about is that even though El Nino is evident in sea surface temperatures the atmosphere hasn't fully responded yet. My understanding is this is why we in the Southeast are alternating between several days of rainy and stormy weather followed by hot and dry and then back again as the atmosphere transitions to a more El Nino like state (which would be a little cooler and more rainy for us than a normal summer). The bottom line is we don't know what the rest of the season holds, but I wanted to discuss this briefly because there are some people who are expecting a lot of activity and you might see some of this on social media. They may be correct but we shouldn't be preparing any differently regardless of what the seasonal forecasts are saying because there is always the possibility that any given location may be impacted by a storm.

That's it for today. I'll send another update early next week if development chances increase for the wave in the Atlantic.

Chris