A Few Strong Storms Are Possible Tomorrow South of Montgomery and a Review of the Historic Snowstorm

January 30, 2025 

First, no snow in the future!

• No snow is expected in the foreseeable future despite misinformation circulating on social media
• I'll let you know if that changes...not likely, except maybe in north AL or TN

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow

• Chance of strong storms from Mobile east to Panama City and north to Montgomery
• Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather
• 2% chance of a tornado
• 5% chance of damaging winds
• Environment is borderline for severe weather production, it's possible we don't see anything at all

Recent Historic Snowstorm

• Satellite image shows extensive snow cover in the southeast, may not see a scene like this for generations
• Snowfall total maps available (third image courtesy of Eric Webb, @webberweather on X; the report of 5.2" north of Mobile is from me BTW)
• More info here

Upcoming Weather and Mid-term Outlook

• Rain clearing out by late Friday, followed by slightly cooler temperatures for a few days
• Warming up next week with possible showers Tuesday through Thursday
• Another dip in temps over the weekend with another weather system maybe around the early part second week of February
• Details uncertain for long-range forecast, but no extreme weather events currently anticipated

There was only one severe weather report outside our area from the last severe weather risk we had on the 18th right before the snow. I expect this to be about the same but stay weather aware nonetheless.

Have a great weekend.

Chris

Winter Weather Conditions are Expected Tuesday and Tuesday Night for Alabama and Florida Coastal Areas North to Montgomery

January 19, 2025

A complex winter weather event is expected to affect parts of the southeastern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast is characterized by significant uncertainty due to the delicate temperature balance both at the surface and aloft. Most of the area is currently under a Winter Storm Watch, with a Winter Storm Warning likely to be issued as we get closer to Tuesday.

Timing and Precipitation Types

The event is expected to begin between mid-morning and noon on Tuesday in southwest Alabama, spreading eastward throughout the afternoon and evening. The precipitation types will vary (precip type at 6 p.m. Tuesday from the Euro and GFS shown below):

• Snow or Snow/Sleet Mix: Likely in the western parts of the affected area.
• Sleet and Freezing Rain: Expected to develop somewhere in the Florida Panhandle as warmer air pushes in from the southeast, with maybe snow or a snow/sleet mix following the ice.
• Coastal Areas: More likely to experience sleet or freezing rain than snow.
• Official NWS snow and ice forecasts as of 3 p.m. shown below.

Forecast Challenges

The main difficulties in predicting this event include:

1. Temperature Variability: Temperatures near the surface will be close to or maybe slightly above freezing, making it hard to determine precise precipitation types.
2. Vertical Temperature Profile: Snow forming at higher altitudes may change form as it falls through layers of warmer temperatures.
3. Spatial and Temporal Precision: Accurately forecasting the timing and location of different precipitation types is extremely challenging.

Expected Impacts

• Snow or sleet accumulations are possible, with varying amounts predicted by different models and forecast offices.
• There's a notable discrepancy in snowfall forecasts shown above between adjacent counties (Okaloosa and Walton) due to different National Weather Service office predictions.
• The potential for snow extends as far north as Birmingham, though little accumulation is expected north of Montgomery at this time. Note that for the accumulation products below, the models don't always know the difference between snow and other types of frozen precip, meaning these are overdone for areas that see a mix of precip vs all snow.

Forecast Confidence

Given the complexity of the weather system, this event will likely require nowcasting - real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting as the situation unfolds. More clarity is expected about 24 hours before the event begins, but some uncertainty will persist until the precipitation actually starts.

If the details change enough to warrant an update I'll let you know. Otherwise, stay safe and warm, it doesn't look like we'll thaw much until Saturday.

Chris