A Few Severe Storms Are Possible Tomorrow for Central to Northern Alabama and Tennessee

April 30, 2025

🌩️ Weather Summary: Severe Weather Threat for Thursday, May 1

• We're just about to end of severe weather season for the Southeast and we're starting to transition to a more summer-like pattern, but we're not done with frontal systems and severe storms just yet. Here's what's on tap as a relatively strong late-season front moves into the area tomorrow:

🌪️ Risk Areas

• Level 2 (Slight Risk): Northern Alabama and southern/middle Tennessee

Central and Eastern Tennessee

Huntsville Area

• Level 1 (Marginal Risk): Extends into central and southwest Alabama, eastern Tennessee, and surrounding areas

Montgomery-Birmingham

⏰ Timing

• Overall Window: 3 PM - 10 PM Thursday

• Northwest Areas: 4 PM - 8 PM

• Southeast Areas: 6 PM - 10 PM

• May continue into early Friday morning hours in some areas

• Low confidence in precise timing, tune in to local media for the latest.

💨 Specific Threats and Probabilities

• Damaging Winds: 15% chance for most of the Slight Risk area 5% in the Marginal area, primary threat

• Heavy Rainfall: Localized flooding possible

• Large Hail: 5% chance across the region, up to quarter size

• Tornadoes: not expected, but an isolated tornado or two possible

🌤️ Weather System Details

• Raining and stormy weather expected through Saturday as a cold front slowly moves through the Southeast

• Some strong storms possible Friday and Saturday, I'll let you know if there's a significant threat

Stay weather-aware as this system moves slowly through the region tomorrow with northwest-to-southeast progression through early Sunday

📊 Past Event Verification (April 10th)

• Below is the verification map for the last significant severe weather event that was all the back on April 10th. The forecast was right on the money.

Stay safe the rest of this week and into the weekend. Hurricane season starts a month from tomorrow. Sometime soon I'll send out a preview of what the season may look like but early indications are for less activity than the previous 2-3 years, with an average to above average number of storms expected.

Chris

A Few Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow for Central Alabama North Into Tennessee

April 9, 2025 

🌩️ Weather Summary: Severe Storms Possible Thursday

🔮 Thursday Afternoon through Evening

• Main Focus Area: Slight Risk zone from just south of Birmingham, Alabama, north through central Tennessee.

  • Threats:

    • 15% chance of damaging winds and hail

    • 2% chance of a tornado

• Marginal Risk Area: Extends south and northeast beyond the Slight Risk zone.

  • Threats: 5% chance of damaging winds and hail

🌤️ Weather System Details

• A low-pressure system tracking across the middle of the country will dip south and bring the potential for severe storms to central/northern Alabama and central/eastern Tennessee.

• The primary threats are damaging winds and hail, with isolated tornadoes possible.

⏰ Timing

• Severe weather is expected to develop Thursday afternoon and continue into the evening.

Eastern Tennessee

Huntsville Area 

Birmingham-Montgomery

April 5th and 6th Event

• The severe weather forecast verified well with actual reports.

April 5th

April 6th

• What did not verify well, to my knowledge, was the extreme about of rainfall that the greater Mobile area received.

🌤️ Outlook After the System

• Cool and clear again until early next week with a warming trend by midweek.

• It looks like the weather pattern will be more settled for a while and mostly dry.

Stay alert and monitor updates for any changes in timing or risk levels. ⚠️

Have a great rest of the week and a great weekend.

Chris