Revision To Severe WX Forecast Today Regarding Afternoon Storms in AL

April 8, 2020

I want to revise/retract one statement I made in my previous post. The storms that will move across Alabama this afternoon and evening DO have the potential to be severe. So there will be two possible rounds of severe weather, one this afternoon and evening and a second round overnight. You can see the second round just coming into view from the north at the end of the loop.

I apologize for the confusion.

Chris

Significant Severe Weather Possible Today For Central Alabama North to Tennessee

April 8, 2020

The SPC has increased the severe weather risk to enhanced (orange) and expanded the risk area to the south for today. Tornadoes, severe wind, and hail are all possible. The stronger threats are all to the north, mostly in Tennessee. The most significant hail threat is just outside of our area into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. I've included a timing graphic that doesn't completely cover all of our area but I think you can get the idea. There will be some weather across central Alabama later today that is not associated with the severe event, the severe event will be overnight. That isn't to say you shouldn't be weather aware at all times but you can get an idea what I'm talking about looking at the simulated radar animation.

Since it is an overnight event make sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

Stay safe, keep an eye our for changing weather conditions, and listen for watches and warnings.

As it happens today is also safe place selfie day: https://www.weather.gov/wrn/safeplaceselfie.

Timing graphic from the Alabama WX Blog.

Have a good day.

Chris

Severe Weather Less Likely Today, About The Same Tomorrow

April 7, 2020

The SPC has backed off of its severe weather forecast for today and it looks like most of the activity will stay well out of our area. There will be a 5% wind risk area in western Alabama corresponding to the marginal risk area (darker green) shown below.

For Wednesday the risk area is about the same and we now know more details. There is a 2% tornado risk for northern Alabama and central Tennessee but the main risk is wind and hail with 5 and 15% risk areas from central Alabama north. The hatched area on the hail image indicates the possibility for 2" hail or larger.

If the risk for tomorrow changes I'll let you know.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow and Wednesday

April 6, 2020

Two areas of severe weather are possible on Tuesday. The first area is mostly to the north but includes part of Tennessee with the SPC indicating slight and marginal risk areas. Severe weather will be most likely into the evening or overnight hours with tornadoes, severe wind, and hail all possible. Thankfully the tornado risk is low.

The second area is from central Alabama south with the SPC indicating a marginal risk area. The severe risk will be in the afternoon, decreasing into the evening. Severe wind and hail are possible.

On Wednesday there is a slight to marginal risk for severe weather from central Alabama north to middle Tennessee. There aren't a lot of details yet but it looks like the primary threat will be severe wind in the evening and overnight hours. I'll send out more details tomorrow if it looks like it will be something other than a wind event.

I hope everyone has a great week. I'll let you know if the risks change significantly.

Chris

Late Morning Update - Severe Weather Risk Increased

March 31, 2020

The SPC upgraded the severe weather risk to enhanced about 30 minutes ago. Included in this area is a 10% tornado risk area. There is a strong storm moving through the area north of Pensacola right now as long as several more in southern Alabama. There is a tornado watch ongoing.

Chris

Slight Chance for Severe Weather Near the Coast Today

March 31, 2020

Storms are moving across Tennessee and northern Alabama this morning with the tail end of the line still sweeping through Mississippi. It will be this line and some storms that form ahead of it that may be severe later this morning and afternoon as they move into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The storms out ahead of the main line are the ones to watch. The SPC is currently monitoring the area below to determine if they need to issue a watch. Expect this to shift east later in the morning.

With this system the SPC has placed a portion of the Gulf Coast in a slight risk area for severe weather including a 5% chance of tornadoes and a 15% chance for severe wind and a 5% chance for hail in the areas shown below. 

Keep an eye out for changing weather and listen for watches and warnings.

Have a good day.

Chris

Gulf Coast Severe Weather Threat for Tuesday

March 28, 2020

The SPC has had added a 15% severe weather risk area for Day 4, or Tuesday, for portions of the Gulf Coast. There aren't a lot of details at this point but we should know more by Monday.

Have a great Saturday!

Chris