Severe Weather Update

April 9, 2021

Severe weather is still on tap through Saturday. For today the enhanced risk area (that I neglected to mention yesterday) is now bulging well into AL encompassing the Montgomery and Birmingham metro areas. Slight and marginal risk areas extend over much of the southeast. For tomorrow a slight risk area is again shown to the south and east of today's risk area. Some severe weather may linger in the eastern FL Panhandle early Sunday but most of it should be off to the east. I'm avoiding any discussion on timing. Since stormy weather will be widespread for the next 24-36 hours it would be difficult to pinpoint the times when it may be the most severe. Frankly, this looks to be a messy and evolving situation so it may not be possible to get specific. You'll see this illustrated below in that the simulated radar looks a lot different than yesterday. Storms shouldn't be severe the entire time so listen for watches or warnings in your area indicating when severe weather may be initiating.

Simulated Radar (again, expect this to change)

Today

Tomorrow

Sunday

That's it for today, have a good safe weekend.

Chris

Update on the Severe Weather Threat Through Saturday

 April 8, 2021

There is not much in the way of severe weather expected for the rest of today except for a portion of NE AL and eastern TN, which is in a marginal risk area. On Friday there is a severe weather risk for a large portion of AL and the western FL Panhandle, with slight and marginal risk areas indicated (edit: I should have noted the enhanced area in western AL). On Saturday the risk area shifts south and east, again covering a large portion of AL and all of the FL Panhandle through the Big Bend in a slight risk area. Timing on Friday looks to be later in the day through the evening and overnight with mostly scattered storms. Early in the morning on Saturday a squall line will move through the southeast, leaving the eastern Panhandle in the afternoon. Scattered showers may remain in its wake. Some areas may still see several inches of rain through early next week.

Model Radar Loop (actual timing and coverage may vary)

Rest of Today

Tomorrow

Saturday

Rainfall

I apologize for the error in timing in yesterday's post. The afternoon timing I mentioned was for the worst weather that occurred to our west and was not correct for arrival of storms in AL.

Chris

Multiple Days of Severe Weather Possible

April 7, 2021

Well our week of good weather is about to come to a close with multiple days of rainy and stormy weather expected through early next week. Starting today in western AL some storms may be severe. Timing of severe weather today will be in the afternoon. Severe weather will also be possible across the southeast through at least Saturday, with Saturday's event perhaps having the highest impact.

Today

Tomorrow

Friday

Saturday

In addition to severe weather, some areas may see a good soaking, especially in the western FL Panhandle and in the AL Panhandle. Below is the 7 day precipitation forecast.

I'll keep you updated as the forecast evolves.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible today in AL and the Western FL Panhandle

March 31, 2021

I was hoping there was going to be a bit of a longer break before we saw severe weather again. The mid-range forecasts looked pretty good when I looked last week but that wasn't to be. At least today's event doesn't look to be very bad, although all it takes is one bad storm in your neighborhood for it to matter to you.

Severe weather is possible today across much of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. A good portion of AL and the extreme western FL Panhandle is in a slight risk area (yellow) with a marginal risk area extending beyond this. The primary tornado threat (5%) is in southern AL but an isolated tornado or two may be possible in outlying areas (2%). Damaging wind and hail are also possible. Timing is shown in the second image, with this graphic coming from the AlabamaWx Weather Blog: https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=226398

I hesitate to say this, but I think things will be quiet for the better part of a week after today, but we'll see, spring weather can be volatile.

Have a great rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Weather Risk Today and Tomorrow for AL and TN

March 27, 2021

There is a severe weather risk for parts of Alabama and Tennessee today into tomorrow. For today the highest risk is for extreme northern AL and a good portion of central to western TN. Some significant severe weather will be possible in the highest risk area. The risk is lower tomorrow with the greatest risk in extreme northeastern AL and eastern TN.

Today

Storm timing today will be throughout the day into the evening hours.

Tomorrow

Severe storm timing tomorrow will coincide with daytime heating in the later morning into the afternoon.

Once we get through the weekend I think we'll get a little break before we have to be concerned about severe weather again.

Have a great weekend.

Chris 

High-Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Today for AL & TN

March 25, 2021

The Storm Prediction Center has added a high risk area for today for the northwest corner of AL, northeast MS, and the southern portion of central TN. The rest of the outlook is about the same as yesterday. Tornado probabilities are 30% within the high area, 15% in the moderate area, and 10% in the enhanced area with EF-2 or stronger tornadoes possible. Lower tornado probabilities extend into the surround area. Damaging wind and hail will also be threats.

Severe storms could begin as early as late morning in NW AL lasting through the evening. Farther to the east-southeast into central to northeast AL and into eastern TN storms may become severe just after lunch lasting until late evening. In southern-southeast AL and the western FL Panhandle storms may become severe in the evening lasting through midnight, although the threat is less in this area.

Stormy weather will linger throughout northern AL and TN through Saturday night with a lesser chance for severe weather Friday and Saturday. A front will push through the rest of the southeast on Sunday.

Stay safe today.

Chris

Severe Weather Likely Thursday

March 24, 2021

The SPC is indicating a moderate chance of severe weather tomorrow for the west-central and north-northwest portion of AL, much of MS, and central and west TN. An enhanced risk area extends to the southeast and also into eastern TN, with larger slight and marginal risk areas encompassing most of the region. Probabilities for each hazard are shown as well. Stormy weather will be ongoing tomorrow morning with some storms becoming severe in the early afternoon. Severe timing looks to be from early afternoon through mid evening for northern and central AL and from evening through early morning for south AL into the FL Panhandle.

I should mention that I may have been incorrect yesterday in stating that this event may be less severe than what was expected for the event last week. After stating that I read several more things that suggested this week's event could actually be worse. That was not from the SPC (they don't say those kinds of things anyway) but the language they use in the outlook for tomorrow is pretty strong, indicating a possible upgrade to high risk.

Stay safe and have a plan. I'll send out another update tomorrow morning.

Chris