May 7, 2025
🌩️ Weather Summary: Prolonged Rain & Severe Weather Risk
🔄 ω Block Pattern Impact
A stalled weather pattern called an "omega block" (resembling the Greek letter ω in the mid levels) has developed over the US
This pattern stops the normal west-to-east movement of weather systems
Result: Midwest remains dry while Southeast and Southwest experience persistent wet conditions
🌧️ Heavy Rain & Flooding Threat
Duration: Persistent rain expected through Monday or Tuesday next week
Rainfall Amounts: Some areas could see upwards of 8 inches of rain
Flooding Concern: Check local outlets for specific flooding information in your area
Estimated 7 Day Rainfall Totals - Locally Higher Amounts Possible
Mobile-Pensacola Area
Destin-Panama City-Tallahassee Area
⚠️ Severe Weather Outlook
Risk Level: Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the next three days
Geographic Focus: Main threat near coastal areas, except Thursday when all of Alabama and most of Tennessee are included
Primary Threats:
Damaging winds
Hail
Isolated tornadoes possible
Timeline:
Today: Mobile east to the Destin Area
Thursday: Risk includes all of Alabama and most of Tennessee
Friday: Risk returns to coastal areas only
Weekend through Monday: Severe threat likely continues
Day 1 - Wednesday through Thursday Morning
Day 2 _ Thursday through Friday Morning
Day 3 - Friday through Saturday Morning
🔮 Extended Outlook
Severe weather threat may persist through the weekend and possibly into Monday, unless risk level increases above Marginal, no additional updates planned
Previous Forecast
Here are the verification maps for the last severe weather event May 1-3. My forecast didn't cover the 1st because initially the risk was Marginal with no tornadoes expected, I often don't send updates for those.
May 1
May 2
May 3
Stay weather-aware during this prolonged rain event, especially if you live in flood-prone areas or near the coast where severe storms are more likely! ⚠️
Stay safe.
Chris
