Severe Storms Continue Sunday & Monday for AL, FL Panhandle, TN – Plus an Update on the Tropics

 June 6, 2025

🌩️ Unsettled Pattern Continues — Severe Weather Possible Sunday and Monday

Not much has changed to the current forecast for today (Friday) or Saturday, although a Marginal risk area has been added for coastal areas tomorrow (. Both days still carry a Slight to Marginal Risk for severe storms, mainly for damaging winds in the afternoon and evening.

Looking ahead, the active pattern continues into Sunday and Monday, with scattered to organized severe storms likely across parts of the Southeast.

---

SUNDAY – June 8, 2025

🟢🟡 Risk Level

• Marginal Risk (Level 1) for most of Alabama, central and eastern Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle.

• Higher-end Marginal or localized Slight Risk (Level 2) possible just to the west.

⏰ Timing

• Afternoon into evening, with scattered storms developing during peak heating and possibly lingering into the evening.

⚠️ Main Threats

• Damaging winds (main hazard)

• Isolated hail

• Brief tornadoes can’t be ruled out, especially with any stronger, more isolated cells.

---

MONDAY – June 9, 2025

🟢🟡 Risk Level (Likely)

• A broad 15% risk area (SPC Day 4 Outlook), equivalent to a Slight Risk, including much of Alabama, central/eastern Tennessee, and the western Florida Panhandle. An expanded Marginal Risk surrounding this will likely be added in the coming days.

⏰ Timing

• Afternoon through evening, with increasing potential for storms to organize into a squall line, enhancing the damaging wind threat.

⚠️ Main Threats

• Damaging winds, potentially more widespread if line segments form

• A few isolated tornadoes

• Hail, especially early in storm evolution or in any discrete cells

---

🌀 Tropical Weather Update

No tropical development is expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days.

There is a very weak signal for development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week, but that appears to be related to a system expected to form in the Eastern Pacific, not the Atlantic basin.

Looking farther ahead, conditions will gradually become more favorable for development in the Gulf and Caribbean as we head into the middle and end of June, but right now there are no concerns and nothing on the immediate horizon.

The GFS model continues to generate storms in the Caribbean nearly every run, but this is a known seasonal bias and is being widely dismissed by forecasters at this point.

That's it for today. Stay safe and check local media outlets for updates for your area.

Chris

More Severe Weather Possible for Central to Northern AL and TN

June 5, 2025

🌩️ Active Weather Pattern Returning — Severe Storm Chances Through Next Week

A renewed period of unsettled weather is beginning Friday and is likely to continue through at least mid to late next week, bringing multiple rounds of thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather across Alabama and central to eastern Tennessee.

---

FRIDAY – June 6, 2025

🟡 Risk Level

• Slight Risk (Level 2) across northern Alabama and central Tennessee.

• Marginal Risk (Level 1) in central and southern Alabama, and eastern Tennessee.

⏰ Timing

• North Alabama / Southern Middle Tennessee:

• Florence: 2 PM – 7 PM

• Huntsville: 3 PM – 8 PM

• Fort Payne: 4 PM – 9 PM

• Central Alabama (Birmingham area):

• 3 PM – 8 PM CDT

• Eastern Tennessee (e.g., Knoxville, Chattanooga):

• 3 PM – 9 PM ET (2 PM – 8 PM CDT)

⚠️ Main Threats

• Damaging winds up to 60 mph (primary hazard).

• Hail: Possible, up to golf ball size (1.75") – low confidence.

• Tornadoes: Very low probability.

---

SATURDAY – June 7, 2025

🟡 Risk Level

• Slight Risk (Level 2) for most of Alabama and central/eastern Tennessee.

• Marginal Risk (Level 1) in far southeastern Alabama.

⏰ Timing

• Storms are expected to develop in the late afternoon and persist into the overnight hours.

• Greatest threat: 3 PM – 9 PM ET (2 PM – 8 PM CDT).

Huntsville Area

Eastern Tennessee

Montgomery-Birmingham Area

⚠️ Main Threats

• Damaging winds

• Large hail

• Flash flooding, especially in areas with training storms

• Associated with a slow-moving cold front

---

🔭 Looking Ahead: Sunday & Monday – June 8–9, 2025

• Severe weather appears possible both Sunday and Monday, especially across central and southern Alabama and parts of Tennessee.

• Conditions will depend on frontal placement, instability, and upper-level support, but the environment may remain supportive of:

  • Scattered severe thunderstorms

  • Damaging wind potential

  • Heavy rainfall and flash flooding

⏳ Details are still evolving, especially for the second half of the week, but the pattern suggests an extended period of thunderstorm activity.

---

✅ What You Should Do

• Stay alert for watches and warnings.

• Check for updates daily, as forecast timing and threats may shift.

• Review your severe weather safety plan, especially if traveling or outdoors.

I didn’t want to clutter this post with the 9 severe weather verification maps from the last several weeks, so I’ve shared those separately here if you're interested.

That’s it for today — I’ll keep you updated if the forecast changes or if additional severe weather is added.

— Chris

May 16-30 2025 Severe Weather Verification

 June 5, 2025

No discussion this post, just showing severe weather forecast verification maps for applicable days between May 16th and 30th. It's been a busy spring...

May 16

May 17

May 18

May 19

May 20

May 24

May 25

May 26

May 29

May 30

That's all for this post. Taking a quick look the SPC has been doing a great job overall.

Chris

2025 Hurricane Season Kicks Off - Caribbean Eyes June Development

May 28, 2025

Hurricane season kicks off this Sunday (June 1st), and while we're not looking at the hyperactive madness that was forecast last year (and then busted...), there's still plenty to keep an eye on.

Early June Development

The big story for early June is potential tropical development in the Caribbean around the second week of the month. Computer models are showing low to moderate signals for something spinning up in the western or northwest Caribbean, with a possible track into the Gulf. This is pretty typical for this time of year - the Gulf and Caribbean are already plenty warm, we just need wind shear to calm down and a seed system to work with.

The potential culprit could be a Central American Gyre (CAG) - basically a large circulation that can spin off smaller troublemakers under the right conditions. We should have a clearer picture by next week.

Seasonal Outlook

The overall season is shaping up to be average to above average, which is actually good news compared to last year's initially hyperactive forecast. Sea surface temperatures, while a little cooler than last year, are still above the 30 year average and wind shear is expected to be low due to neutral El Nino conditions. Here's what the experts are saying:

Colorado State University (April forecast):

• 17 named storms (average is 14.4)
• 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2)
• 4 major hurricanes (average is 3.2)

NOAA (May forecast):

• 60% chance of above average season
• 13-19 named storms
• 6-10 hurricanes
• 3-5 major hurricanes

Personal Take

Here's my first attempt at a seasonal forecast (take it with a grain of salt): I'm thinking we'll see average activity overall in the Atlantic basin but maybe below average activity for the Gulf of Mexico. For the Gulf specifically, there's a good chance for a storm early in June, probably favoring the central and eastern Gulf. I'm expecting maybe 3-5 Gulf storms total for the season, another 1-2 in July or August with activity looking quieter than usual in September when things normally ramp up but with 1-2 more in October and November.

The most action will likely be from storms forming out in the east Atlantic in September, with many recurving harmlessly into the open ocean. Coastal North Carolina might see some action early in July and August but especially in September, while Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas could face higher than normal risk in September and October and maybe into November.

Bottom Line

Regardless of what the forecasts say, now's the time to start putting that hurricane kit together and thinking through evacuation plans. Every season deserves the same level of preparation, whether it ends up quiet or chaotic.

I'll keep you up to date as necessary throughout the season.

Chris

More Strong Storms Possible Today Through Thursday

May 27, 2025

I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. I apologize I didn't mention the severe threat on Memorial Day, I thought I covered that on my last update.

Weather Forecast Summary

⛈️ Ongoing Stormy Pattern
The unsettled weather pattern continues for several more days across the region.

Today's Severe Weather Risk

🌩️ Slight Risk Zone

• Alabama from Birmingham south through Mobile

• Small portion of Florida Panhandle north of Pensacola

💨 Primary Threat: Damaging Winds (15% chance)
🌪️ Tornado Risk: 2% chance
🧊 Hail Risk: 5% chance

☁️ Marginal Risk Zone

• Northern Alabama and southern Florida Panhandle (excluding Walton County beaches and Panama City area)

• 5% chance of damaging winds and hail

⏰ Timing

• Central Alabama: Late morning through mid-evening

• Southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle: Afternoon through later in the evening

Wednesday & Thursday Outlook

⛈️ Continued Severe Weather Threat

• Marginal risk both days (Slight risk possible on later updates)

• Main threat: Damaging winds 💨

• Isolated tornadoes possible 🌪️

• Peak activity: Afternoon and evening hours but this pattern is a bit unpredictable so storms may occur at any time night or day

Day 2 - Tuesday

Day 3 - Wednesday

Extended Forecast

🌤️ Pattern Change Maybe On Friday

• ⛈️ Don't be surprised if there isn't at least a Marginal risk of severe storms on Friday

• Stormy pattern may begin to break later on Friday into the weekend

• 🌧️ Lingering showers possible along coastal areas through the weekend due to stalled front

Stay safe and have a good week.

Chris