Tropics Update and Holiday Weekend Forecast

June 30th, 2025 

🌦️ Tropical & Regional Weather Outlook (Next 7 Days)

• 🌀 Named Storms Recap

  • Tropical Storm Andrea formed in the central Atlantic about a week ago; no U.S. impacts.

  • Tropical Storm Barry dissipating over Mexico; also posed no threat to the U.S.

• 🔭 7-Day Tropical Outlook

• 20 % chance of development in the Gulf or off the East Coast over the next week.

• A piece of cold-front energy could linger and slowly develop into a tropical system, with model tracks ranging from a slow westward drift in the Gulf to stalling over Florida or meandering eastward.

• No strong intensification signal currently indicated—land interaction, shear, and dry air should may any development. Current uncertainty is high so we need to keep watching.

• 🌧️ Rain Focus

• Heaviest rain currently progged to remain offshore of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast; a slight northward shift could bring heavier bands ashore.

• Unsettled conditions continue through Wednesday morning.

• Drier weather returns Thursday for most, except the immediate coast.

• 🌴 Holiday Weekend Preview

  • Generally pleasant inland with limited rain chances.

  • Beach areas see daily shower or thunderstorm potential.

• 🌡️ Temperature & Humidity

  • Cooler-than-normal temps prevail while rain persists; muggy conditions overall.

  • Post-front midweek: humidity drops, skies clear, allowing temps to climb to around or just above seasonal norms.

• 🗓️ Next Update

• Another tropical briefing later this week as models and observations evolve.

Have a great week.

Chris