January 11, 2020
The system that will bring severe weather to us today got off to a good start yesterday in Oklahoma, East Texas, and Arkansas, and is now moving through Louisiana, Tennessee, and Mississippi. The storm report map from yesterday is below.
Take this event seriously. Below is the radar image at the time of this writing and some model simulations for noon and 6pm, this is what is heading our way. There are numerous tornado watches in effect and these will continue throughout the day. Remember that a watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes. If you receive an alert for a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning, that means a storm producing those conditions is likely occurring in your area. That is the time to take immediate shelter if you haven't already.
Below are the Day 1 Outlook products for our area. The first image also shows expected timing (hat tip to James Spann, @spann). This will be a fast moving event. Almost our entire area is covered by an Enhanced risk area, there is a 30% chance for severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Notice the tornado risk map, a 10% chance for a tornado is fairly significant. The black hatched area represents a 10% chance for a significant tornado (EF2 or greater). People in that area really need to watch anything that develops in front of the main line although tornadoes can be embedded within the line as well. The most likely damage any of us will experience is from wind from the main line. Hail should not be a major risk.
Again, take this event seriously, have a plan, and stay aware of the weather. Below are some sheltering guidelines.
Stay safe. I'll send another update if the risk significantly changes.
Chris
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