Deep South Weather Outlook February 10-17

February 9, 2020

This is a long one, but really just a lot of images. Read the synopsis for the CliffsNotes version. The beginning is a recap of our recent weather, followed by the weather for week.

Synopsis: more rain coming especially from Montgomery north. There's a chance for severe weather tomorrow for parts of Alabama, but a more significant chance that may affect us all on Wednesday. Temps will be above average for most of the period, especially near the coast, except for a few days towards the end of the week where we'll see some cooler weather. There are some hints at some winter precip for the northern most areas later this week and early next week, but the probability is very low.

Recent Weather Recap

For those that are curious, there were a total of 269 severe weather reports for last Wednesday and Thursday.

Rain was the big story. Many locations received much more than the 3 or so inches of rain (at most) that was previously forecast.

Winter precip was a higher than expected as well, especially in northern Georgia, but this was probably a treat for those of you that got to see it.

For the week to come you can expect the same pattern to continue with the next system moving in tomorrow morning. I think it may clear a little Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but by late Wednesday or early Thursday wet weather returns.  For the weekend and early next week It looks like we'll see another 1-2 punch with the first system coming overnight Saturday or into Sunday and the second Monday or Tuesday. Higher rain amounts look to be from Montgomery north. With some areas exceeding 7 inches for the week, flooding is certainly a risk.

Severe weather is the other concern this week. Tomorrow and overnight Monday a portion of the Deep South is in a Marginal risk area for severe weather, with a 2% chance of tornadoes in this area. While there's a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday, severe weather is not expected. Wednesday is the day to watch, the Day 4 outlook has most of our region in a 15% risk area with a portion in a 30% risk area. We haven't been told any details yet, but all forms of severe weather are possible.

There's not much more to add about temperature than what I stated in the synopsis. I think only the northern-most areas will see temps below freezing a few nights towards the weekend.

I'll send out an update Tuesday regarding the severe weather threat for Wednesday. If you have any questions, or want more specific info for your area just let me know.

Have a great week.

Chris