March 31, 2020
Chris
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Late Morning Update - Severe Weather Risk Increased
Slight Chance for Severe Weather Near the Coast Today
March 31, 2020
Storms are moving across Tennessee and northern Alabama this morning with the tail end of the line still sweeping through Mississippi. It will be this line and some storms that form ahead of it that may be severe later this morning and afternoon as they move into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The storms out ahead of the main line are the ones to watch. The SPC is currently monitoring the area below to determine if they need to issue a watch. Expect this to shift east later in the morning.
With this system the SPC has placed a portion of the Gulf Coast in a slight risk area for severe weather including a 5% chance of tornadoes and a 15% chance for severe wind and a 5% chance for hail in the areas shown below.
Keep an eye out for changing weather and listen for watches and warnings.
Have a good day.
Chris
Storms are moving across Tennessee and northern Alabama this morning with the tail end of the line still sweeping through Mississippi. It will be this line and some storms that form ahead of it that may be severe later this morning and afternoon as they move into southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The storms out ahead of the main line are the ones to watch. The SPC is currently monitoring the area below to determine if they need to issue a watch. Expect this to shift east later in the morning.
With this system the SPC has placed a portion of the Gulf Coast in a slight risk area for severe weather including a 5% chance of tornadoes and a 15% chance for severe wind and a 5% chance for hail in the areas shown below.
Keep an eye out for changing weather and listen for watches and warnings.
Have a good day.
Chris
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Gulf Coast Severe Weather Threat for Tuesday
March 28, 2020
The SPC has had added a 15% severe weather risk area for Day 4, or Tuesday, for portions of the Gulf Coast. There aren't a lot of details at this point but we should know more by Monday.
Have a great Saturday!
Chris
Friday, March 27, 2020
Deep South Weather March 27 - April 2
March 27, 2020
I hope everyone has been safe and healthy. There's nothing really exciting going on for us weather-wise but I thought it was a good time for an update. The synopsis is that we have a couple of weather systems coming through between Saturday night and mid next week. Most of the rain will be away from the coast. Expect some cooler weather from mid-week on. There will be a few chances of severe weather that I'll cover below. There's a tidbit on the upcoming hurricane season at the bottom.
A pretty solid cold front will move in late Saturday and clear out Sunday. Only the northern most areas stand to see a really good chance of rain from the this.
There will be a severe weather threat for northwestern Alabama and a good portion of central Tennessee on Saturday. The Mississippi Valley looks like they'll get hit pretty hard. There's a wind and hail threat also that I'm not showing. If something changes significantly I'll let you know tomorrow.
A second system will come through on Tuesday. The image below will give you an idea of the rain we may see, again It doesn't look like we will see a lot from this either. There will be a chance of severe weather. There's not a lot of detail about this yet as far as when and what modes to expect but when there's more info I'll let you know. There's a chance nothing happens.
After the second system we'll see some cooler air. It wont really be cold but cooler than average and cooler than it has been. Places as far south as the coast may see a few nights that touch the upper 40s through the end of the week. Below you can get an idea of what the low may be Thursday. Below that are the 6-10 and 8-14 day temp outlooks.
Let's talk tropics briefly. I haven't had the time to digest all of the early seasonal outlooks but from pretty much everything I'm seeing it looks like we may have an above average season. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) looks to be neutral or maybe even in a La Nina state by summer. This is generally favorable for tropical development. There are many ingredients but at least this one looks to support an active season. Water temps are also generally warmer than normal in the areas that matter. This could change as we approach the start of the season but I don't think it is expected to.
If COVID-19 is still a major factor it may influence how we deal with hurricane season. Start thinking about what you may need to do differently and start making a plan. Also think about how your evacuation kit may have to change if social distancing is still ongoing.
That's enough for now. I hope you all have a great weekend. Stay safe and keep doing all the things we need to do to stay healthy.
Chris
I hope everyone has been safe and healthy. There's nothing really exciting going on for us weather-wise but I thought it was a good time for an update. The synopsis is that we have a couple of weather systems coming through between Saturday night and mid next week. Most of the rain will be away from the coast. Expect some cooler weather from mid-week on. There will be a few chances of severe weather that I'll cover below. There's a tidbit on the upcoming hurricane season at the bottom.
A pretty solid cold front will move in late Saturday and clear out Sunday. Only the northern most areas stand to see a really good chance of rain from the this.
There will be a severe weather threat for northwestern Alabama and a good portion of central Tennessee on Saturday. The Mississippi Valley looks like they'll get hit pretty hard. There's a wind and hail threat also that I'm not showing. If something changes significantly I'll let you know tomorrow.
A second system will come through on Tuesday. The image below will give you an idea of the rain we may see, again It doesn't look like we will see a lot from this either. There will be a chance of severe weather. There's not a lot of detail about this yet as far as when and what modes to expect but when there's more info I'll let you know. There's a chance nothing happens.
After the second system we'll see some cooler air. It wont really be cold but cooler than average and cooler than it has been. Places as far south as the coast may see a few nights that touch the upper 40s through the end of the week. Below you can get an idea of what the low may be Thursday. Below that are the 6-10 and 8-14 day temp outlooks.
Let's talk tropics briefly. I haven't had the time to digest all of the early seasonal outlooks but from pretty much everything I'm seeing it looks like we may have an above average season. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) looks to be neutral or maybe even in a La Nina state by summer. This is generally favorable for tropical development. There are many ingredients but at least this one looks to support an active season. Water temps are also generally warmer than normal in the areas that matter. This could change as we approach the start of the season but I don't think it is expected to.
If COVID-19 is still a major factor it may influence how we deal with hurricane season. Start thinking about what you may need to do differently and start making a plan. Also think about how your evacuation kit may have to change if social distancing is still ongoing.
That's enough for now. I hope you all have a great weekend. Stay safe and keep doing all the things we need to do to stay healthy.
Chris
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Enhanced Risk For Severe Weather This Afternoon and Evening for N AL & TN
March 24, 2020
The SPC has upgraded the severe weather threat for northern Alabama and a portion of middle Tennessee this afternoon and this evening. There is now an enhanced threat for severe weather including a 10% chance of tornadoes in this area with significant severe (EF-2 or greater) possible.
There are no current watches or warnings but I'd expect a tornado watch sometime this afternoon or early evening. Keep an eye out for changing conditions and have a plan.
Stay safe.
Chris
The SPC has upgraded the severe weather threat for northern Alabama and a portion of middle Tennessee this afternoon and this evening. There is now an enhanced threat for severe weather including a 10% chance of tornadoes in this area with significant severe (EF-2 or greater) possible.
There are no current watches or warnings but I'd expect a tornado watch sometime this afternoon or early evening. Keep an eye out for changing conditions and have a plan.
Stay safe.
Chris
Monday, March 23, 2020
Severe Weather Possible Today and Tomorrow For Parts of AL & TN
March 23, 2020
There is a chance of severe weather today and tomorrow for parts of Alabama and Tennessee. As I write this there is stormy weather ongoing across the northern portion of Alabama and into Tennessee. The severe weather threat for today is for a marginal risk area confined to the central and southern portions of Alabama and consists of a wind and hail threat that will develop this afternoon.
For tomorrow there are slight and marginal risk areas covering central to northern Alabama and most of Tennessee. The threat tomorrow includes the possibility of all modes: tornadoes, wind, and hail. Western areas will see the threat earlier tomorrow with the threat moving east later into the afternoon and evening.
Stay safe and have a great week.
Chris
There is a chance of severe weather today and tomorrow for parts of Alabama and Tennessee. As I write this there is stormy weather ongoing across the northern portion of Alabama and into Tennessee. The severe weather threat for today is for a marginal risk area confined to the central and southern portions of Alabama and consists of a wind and hail threat that will develop this afternoon.
For tomorrow there are slight and marginal risk areas covering central to northern Alabama and most of Tennessee. The threat tomorrow includes the possibility of all modes: tornadoes, wind, and hail. Western areas will see the threat earlier tomorrow with the threat moving east later into the afternoon and evening.
Stay safe and have a great week.
Chris
Friday, March 20, 2020
Strong Winds Possible in AL & TN Today and Tonight
March 20, 2020
This morning the SPC added a marginal severe weather risk area for a good portion of Alabama and Tennessee. The main risk is strong winds.
Have a great weekend.
Chris
Thursday, March 19, 2020
Deep South Weather March 20-31
March 19, 2020
Happy first day of Spring! Spring is earlier this year than it has been for over 100 years. We're talking about the date of Astronomical Spring, the Vernal Equinox, and not the meteorological season, which started March 1 by definition. It has to do with leap year which is more complicated than I knew before. Anyhow, you can read about it more here.
Synopsis: expect warm weather and some rainy periods for the next 10 days or so. Temps look to be well above average for this time of year, expect that to continue. We could see a cooler day or two every now and then from a front, more so up north, but for the most part it'll be warm. Precipitation will be above average from maybe Montgomery north and average to below average south of there to the coast. No severe weather is currently expected.
There has been some severe weather ongoing to our west. Thankfully there is no severe weather forecast for our area through the next 7 days, I'll let you know if that changes.
Scattered showers are forming and moving across west-central Alabama north into central Tennessee as I type. These are forming under a warm front that stretches back towards the Midwest and is part of a system that will bring a cold front through on Saturday. Expect rain ahead of the front Friday into Saturday with the heavier rain from Montgomery north with only a small to moderate chance towards the coast.
The front will stall right along the coast on Saturday and then lift out Sunday through Tuesday of next week as another system moves across the US to our north mid-week. This system will bring rain for Montgomery north with coastal areas having a chance Sunday and Monday. There may be a couple of more northerly systems with a similar track through next weekend and the end of the month.
There's not a lot else going on for us weather-wise. If you're interested, here are some links about how warmer weather may affect the virus:
Coronavirus and Seasonality: What We Know and Don’t Know
Will Spring Temperatures Stop Coronavirus?
Will spring temperatures affect the COVID-19 outbreak?
I hope you all stay safe and healthy.
Chris
Happy first day of Spring! Spring is earlier this year than it has been for over 100 years. We're talking about the date of Astronomical Spring, the Vernal Equinox, and not the meteorological season, which started March 1 by definition. It has to do with leap year which is more complicated than I knew before. Anyhow, you can read about it more here.
Synopsis: expect warm weather and some rainy periods for the next 10 days or so. Temps look to be well above average for this time of year, expect that to continue. We could see a cooler day or two every now and then from a front, more so up north, but for the most part it'll be warm. Precipitation will be above average from maybe Montgomery north and average to below average south of there to the coast. No severe weather is currently expected.
There has been some severe weather ongoing to our west. Thankfully there is no severe weather forecast for our area through the next 7 days, I'll let you know if that changes.
Scattered showers are forming and moving across west-central Alabama north into central Tennessee as I type. These are forming under a warm front that stretches back towards the Midwest and is part of a system that will bring a cold front through on Saturday. Expect rain ahead of the front Friday into Saturday with the heavier rain from Montgomery north with only a small to moderate chance towards the coast.
The front will stall right along the coast on Saturday and then lift out Sunday through Tuesday of next week as another system moves across the US to our north mid-week. This system will bring rain for Montgomery north with coastal areas having a chance Sunday and Monday. There may be a couple of more northerly systems with a similar track through next weekend and the end of the month.
There's not a lot else going on for us weather-wise. If you're interested, here are some links about how warmer weather may affect the virus:
Coronavirus and Seasonality: What We Know and Don’t Know
Will Spring Temperatures Stop Coronavirus?
Will spring temperatures affect the COVID-19 outbreak?
I hope you all stay safe and healthy.
Chris
Thursday, March 12, 2020
Note on Severe Weather Today
March 12, 2020
While it's outside of our area, I wanted to point out that the SPC has increased the threat level for today to enhanced as shown in orange, This area has a 10% chance of a strong tornado (EF-2 or stronger) as indicated by the black hatched area in the tornado graphic. The forecast for our area remains largely the same as it did yesterday. Keep in mind these maps don't represent hard boundaries, things could change throughout the day. I think the timing remains the same, expect storms to show up in the afternoon and persist into the evening.
Have a good day.
Chris
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Severe Weather Update for Thursday
March 11, 2020
The SPC has increased the threat level to marginal and expanded the threat area for Thursday to the east and south. Away from the coast showers will be possible or ongoing from now into Friday. Severe weather is possible for the remainder of the day and overnight for northern west Alabama into Mississippi and points west.
For Thursday I understand the severe threat will be greatest in afternoon through the evening and maybe later. All hazard modes are possible. Hail is more likely earlier and more to the west with the other threats more widespread. This seems to be a complicated forecast so things could change as it evolves.
Stay safe.
Chris
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Slight-Marginal Chance of Severe Weather in AL & TN the Next Few Days
March 10, 2020
There will be a chance for severe weather in parts of Alabama and Tennessee the next few days. For Day 2 (tomorrow through Wednesday morning) the greatest risk looks to stay to the west, you can see the risk areas and associated threat probabilities below. Stay alert in case things change as they did in Tennessee last week.
For Day 3 (Thursday through Friday morning) the greatest risk is in northwestern Alabama into central and eastern Tennessee. There's not a lot of specifics yet but I do believe there will be a relatively low tornado threat, 2-5% is my guess, along with wind and hail.
There may be another severe threat towards the middle to end of next week. The Climate Prediction Center has circled an area that encompasses part of our region as an area to watch.
I didn't email it to everyone, but I wrote a post about last week's severe weather including the tornadoes in Tennessee that you can read here.
Have a great rest of the week. If the severe weather threat changes significantly I'll send out an update.
Chris
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