I hope everyone has been safe and healthy. There's nothing really exciting going on for us weather-wise but I thought it was a good time for an update. The synopsis is that we have a couple of weather systems coming through between Saturday night and mid next week. Most of the rain will be away from the coast. Expect some cooler weather from mid-week on. There will be a few chances of severe weather that I'll cover below. There's a tidbit on the upcoming hurricane season at the bottom.
A pretty solid cold front will move in late Saturday and clear out Sunday. Only the northern most areas stand to see a really good chance of rain from the this.
There will be a severe weather threat for northwestern Alabama and a good portion of central Tennessee on Saturday. The Mississippi Valley looks like they'll get hit pretty hard. There's a wind and hail threat also that I'm not showing. If something changes significantly I'll let you know tomorrow.
A second system will come through on Tuesday. The image below will give you an idea of the rain we may see, again It doesn't look like we will see a lot from this either. There will be a chance of severe weather. There's not a lot of detail about this yet as far as when and what modes to expect but when there's more info I'll let you know. There's a chance nothing happens.
After the second system we'll see some cooler air. It wont really be cold but cooler than average and cooler than it has been. Places as far south as the coast may see a few nights that touch the upper 40s through the end of the week. Below you can get an idea of what the low may be Thursday. Below that are the 6-10 and 8-14 day temp outlooks.
Let's talk tropics briefly. I haven't had the time to digest all of the early seasonal outlooks but from pretty much everything I'm seeing it looks like we may have an above average season. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) looks to be neutral or maybe even in a La Nina state by summer. This is generally favorable for tropical development. There are many ingredients but at least this one looks to support an active season. Water temps are also generally warmer than normal in the areas that matter. This could change as we approach the start of the season but I don't think it is expected to.
If COVID-19 is still a major factor it may influence how we deal with hurricane season. Start thinking about what you may need to do differently and start making a plan. Also think about how your evacuation kit may have to change if social distancing is still ongoing.
That's enough for now. I hope you all have a great weekend. Stay safe and keep doing all the things we need to do to stay healthy.
Chris
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