Slight to Marginal Chance of Severe Weather Tomorrow

April 28, 2020

There is a slight to marginal chance for severe weather tomorrow for Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and central to eastern Tennessee. Damaging winds and hail are the main threats, but an isolated tornado is also possible. There could be some weather around daybreak starting in northwest Alabama and moving to the east-southeast throughout the day but the severe threat looks to be in the afternoon and into the evening. Timing and storm location could be different than shown in the simulated radar image below.

I hope you're having a great week! I'll send out another update tomorrow morning if the risk changes significantly.

Chris

Slight-Marginal Chance for Severe Weather in TN and NE AL

April 25, 2020

There is a slight to moderate chance of severe weather today in central to eastern Tennessee and extreme northeast Alabama. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all possible this afternoon into tonight.

There may be another chance for severe weather on Thursday, predictability is low at this time.

Below is a storm report map from Thursday. I think this may yet be incomplete as I don't see dots for some of the tornadoes that occurred in Walton and Bay counties in Florida.

Have a great weekend!

Chris

Mid-Morning Update - Downgraded Risk

April 23, 2020

The SPC has downgraded the severe weather risk as of their 11:30a.m. update. The enhanced (orange) risk area that was present this morning is now only indicated for an area to our east. The rest of the forecast remains the same. Expect storms to continue to develop back to the west throughout the day. The good news is that it is no longer expected that widespread severe weather will occur with these storms. Severe weather is still possible, so pay attention for watches and warnings.

 

Have a good rest of the day.

Chris

Severe Weather Update for Today

April 23, 2020

A line of storms with an associated tornado watch is moving through southern Alabama and part of the Florida Panhandle this morning. There will be a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk as this line moves east through the morning. Once this line passes and daytime heating begins more storms will begin to form behind it from the Florida Panhandle up through Alabama and Tennessee. It is these storms that pose the greatest severe risk with the threat lasting through the afternoon and possibly after nightfall. Individual storms that form in clear air will have the greatest chance of becoming severe. The SPC has focused on an area in the Panhandle and across the FL/AL and FL/GA borders as having the greatest risk but they have a quite large slight risk region (yellow) surrounding this. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all possible. Later this evening a cold front will sweep all of this out of here. Again, don't take the simulated radar as an exact forecast, but you can see the storm development that occurs after the line passes this morning.

The severe weather threat for Friday that I mentioned yesterday looks like it will stay to our west now. Any severe threat for Saturday looks to be minimal at this time. Stay safe and have a good day.

Chris

Severe Weather Tonight and Tomorrow

April 22, 2020

Severe weather will be possible after midnight tonight in central to western Alabama. Tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail are all possible but it sounds like hail is the main threat until after daybreak on Thursday. The severe threat ramps up Thursday with an enhanced risk area shown for a large portion of Alabama and extending into the Florida Panhandle. Tornadoes, with some EF-2 or stronger, and damaging winds will be the main threats with hail also possible. There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow so some fairly big changes to the forecast are possible.


Midnight Tonight Through Thursday Morning

Thursday

Possible Timing Tonight and Thursday

On Friday afternoon severe storms are possible for a portion of Alabama as shown below, hail looks to be the main threat.

Severe weather is also possible for Saturday but so far there's not enough model agreement for the SPC to outline any risk areas. I'll keep you updated as things change.

Chris

More Severe Weather Wednesday Late and Thursday

April 21, 2020

Severe weather is possible from after midnight Wednesday through Thursday this week. The main risk of severe weather looks to be during the day on Thursday but the system bringing this weather will start to arrive in our area after midnight Wednesday. This is why there's a portion of Alabama in the Day 2 outlook which runs from 7a.m. Wednesday morning to 7a.m. Thursday morning. Through Thursday morning the main risk for Alabama looks to be damaging winds. During the day on Thursday a tornado threat looks likely with some uncertainty still on how severe this threat may be. I'm not sure what they're thinking regarding timing but it sounds like the worst weather may occurring from the afternoon through early evening during maximum daytime heating.


Wednesday night through early Thursday

Thursday

Below is a storm report map for the event on Sunday the 19th. Storm reports are still being collected and investigated but it sounds like the tornado threat didn't end up being as severe as was forecast. The wind threat forecast was spot on.

I hope you're having a great week. We'll have more details tomorrow. There may be another chance for severe weather on Saturday that we'll have to watch.

Chris

Severe Weather Update for Today and Tonight

April 19, 2020

There severe weather threat area has expanded this morning. The moderate risk area is larger along a west to east axis. This coincides with a larger 15% tornado risk area and a new 45% damaging wind risk area. The hail probability is about the same as yesterday. Again EF-2 or stronger tornadoes, winds greater than 75mph, and hail 2" or larger are possible in the black hatched areas.

Stormy weather is ongoing across the northern half of Alabama with a few storms already reaching the severe threshold. Multiple rounds of severe weather are likely. The first will occur a little later this morning as a warm front lifts north from the coast so expect a round of severe weather across southern to central Alabama and perhaps a few strong storms along the coast in the Florida Panhandle later this morning through the afternoon. In the afternoon and persisting through the evening and overnight hours squall lines will move through ahead of an advancing cold front bringing additional severe storms through the area.

I'll keep you updated if anything changes. Stay alert for changing weather and listen for watches and warnings.

Chris

Severe Weather Risk is Now Higher for Sunday

April 18, 2020

The SPC has increased the severe weather risk for tomorrow as of their 12:30p.m. update. A moderate risk area (red) has been added and a large portion of our area remains in an enhanced (orange) risk area with other areas in slight (yellow) or marginal (dark green) risk areas. The moderate risk was added due to an increasing risk of strong tornadoes. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all possible including the possibility for significant severe weather in the black hatched areas. Remember that significant severe is EF-2 or stronger tornadoes, winds greater than 75mph, and hail larger than 2".

Timing is kind of messy with severe weather possible all day in the south anywhere there are storms. It sounds like earlier storms will be more of a hail threat. Expect tornadoes and damaging winds threats later especially in the afternoon and into the evening and even through morning near the coast. Below is simulated radar through Monday morning. Just remember not to look at the animation and expect the weather and timing to be exactly like it is shown. All it takes is for a severe storm to come down your street for it to matter for you so be prepared.

Just so that you're aware, there is a marginal risk for severe weather across the Panhandle and southern Alabama today with the main threats being wind and hail for the Panhandle and southern Alabama (there is a low tornado threat elsewhere).

Enjoy your Saturday! I'll send out another update tomorrow morning.

Chris

Severe Weather Update for Sunday April 19th

April 17, 2020

We'll have some messy weather over the next few days. In addition, the SPC has placed a large portion of the deep south in an enhanced risk area for Sunday. Storms may be ongoing around day break in northern AL and MS but it sounds like the greatest chance for severe weather will be after noon. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all be possible. We'll have a better idea tomorrow what the specific threat probabilities will be.

I hope you all have a great weekend.

Chris