The 8:00a.m. Day 1 Outlook has just been issued. The moderate and enhanced risk areas have expanded both to the east/northeast and to the south. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail all remain possible with a large area encompassed by the black hatched area on the tornado risk map, indicating the possibility of EF-2 or stronger tornadoes.
The SPC described the forecast as "complex." Due to the "complexity" or uncertainty it's hard to say when exactly severe weather may occur. Keep an eye out for changing conditions and listen for watches and warnings. There are some showers ongoing across Alabama this morning but so far the severe weather is in east Texas and western Louisiana. Two rounds of severe weather are possible. The first could occur in the late morning or early afternoon moving to the east-northeast across Mississippi and Alabama, perhaps moving into Tennessee later in the day. The second round will occur later in the afternoon, moving into Alabama, Tennessee, and the Florida Panhandle from the west or southwest. The possibility for severe weather in this second round is more likely and may last into the evening and overnight as it moves east.
I'm not going to show you a radar animation this morning because I'm not sure if the high resolution model is handling well the storms currently occurring across Alabama west through central Louisiana. If it's not handling current conditions well there is a good chance that what it predicts for later is not correct.
I hope everyone has a great Easter today and that you stay safe in the weather. I'll send out more updates as the situation evolves. We'll get another update from the SPC at 11:30a.m.
Chris
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