May 1, 2020
It's May already! Besides the fact that time is going by too fast, this also means that we're a month away from the official start of hurricane season! I wont go into too many details, but all the people and groups that produce seasonal forecasts (that I have seen) are predicting an above average season. The primary drivers are an expected combination of generally warm water and neutral to La Nina conditions. An average season is 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and about 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). Colorado State University is predicting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. I've seen some forecasts with even more storms than this. The East Pacific season starts on May 15th but they have already had their first tropical cyclone of the season, the earliest since the satellite era began in 1966. It should be noted that this doesn't necessarily indicate a particularly active season but it's interesting.
One thing to think about is how social distancing may affect your plans if you have to evacuate. Things are starting to ease in Florida but they may not stay that way and it may not be that way in the area you have to visit. Plan to be as self sufficient as possible both during an evacuation and when you return.
Get your hurricane kit restocked when you can. I'll keep you updated when things start brewing in the tropics.
Have a great weekend.
Chris
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