May 31, 2020
Tomorrow is the first day of hurricane season and we're working on maybe our third named stormed. The NHC is indicating that there is a 50% chance of tropical development over the next 5 days in the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Tropical Storm Amanda has made landfall on the Pacific coast of Guatemala and is being watched to see if it will cross over into the Gulf and try to redevelop later this week or this weekend.
Operational models aren't all completely sold on development for this system. The GFS, Canadian, German ICON, and Australian ACCESS models show development of some sort while the Euro and UKMET (with the UKMET only going out through Friday) are not showing development beyond a tropical depression or tropical storm. There are also many Euro and GFS ensemble model members that show development. So even though the operation Euro model doesn't develop this storm right now, many of its ensemble members do. Based on all of this I think we will see confidence in development increase over the next few days. Right now, most models keep the storm west of the Florida Panhandle. Keep in mind that we're still out beyond the 3-5 day range so there's quite a bit of uncertainty. I'm also not well versed enough in analyzing steering influences to understand if the models are correct keeping the storm to the west.
I'll let you know when there's better info. Stay safe and have a good week.
Chris
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