The forecast for Cristobal has been pretty consistent for the past several days. The official NHC track is below. In their discussion, the NHC is forecasting that due to an expected asymmetric structure at landfall that the highest winds, heaviest rain, and strongest storm surge will likely be well away from and east of the center.
Even though this is expected to "just" be a tropical storm at landfall, there are still hazards to be aware of. For most of us to the east and away from the landfall point, flooding rainfall is the main hazard. The 3 and 5 day rainfall forecasts are below. Keep in mind that isolated locations may receive double this amount.
Storm surge and coastal flooding will also be a hazard. The Tallahassee NWS office is expecting moderate coastal flooding along the Big Bend region of Florida and minor coastal flooding elsewhere along the Florida Panhandle. There will also be storm surge concerns to the west. The NHC has issued a storm surge watch but I haven't been able to find a map for the watch locations. The locations are: 1) Indian Pass to Arepika Florida, 2) Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi, and 3) Lake Borgne. Peak surge is expected to be during the day on Sunday, below is the expect peak storm surge range.
Severe weather is also a threat. The SPC is indicating a marginal risk area on Day 3 (Sunday) for the coast due to the threat of isolated tornadoes, with a 5% chance of severe weather in the dark green shaded region.
I hope you all have a good Friday and a good weekend.
Chris
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