Last night Invest 98L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 13, the 5-day forecast is shown below. I'll explain a little about what the models are showing but the official forecast is what we should all go by to make any decisions.
The GFS operational model has started to see this system much better and now shows a strong category 2 hurricane making landfall around the Florida Big Bend area early next Wednesday. Just as a reference, the model run 6 hours before that showed a strong tropical storm making landfall in Louisiana. A few other models are showing development but not the Euro yet. I'd like to see more run to run consistency from the GFS and other models come on board around a consolidated forecast before I start trusting any one solution. The spaghetti models along with the GFS and Euro ensemble guidance are below. Notice that very few of the Euro's 51 members are showing development. I can't really say which of the two between the GFS and Euro are seeing the future environment correctly, it'll probably take another day or two to know for sure, but I'm leaning towards the GFS with its idea that we will have a potentially impactful storm making landfall along the northern to eastern Gulf Coast mid next week. It hasn't really made a lot of sense that no development was shown by the GFS up until last night and that the Euro still isn't showing any, most tropical meteorologists seem to be confused by this so I think the GFS now may be starting to see things correctly.
Invest 97L is still doing its thing and the outlook on its future is about the same as I mentioned yesterday. The track guidance may be starting to consolidate around a more westerly track in the Gulf with the intensity forecast maybe a touch higher. For the time being TD 13 seems to be the one to pay more attention to but we'll keep watching this as well.
Have a good day.
Chris
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