The forecast for TD 13 is still complex this morning and there's a little uncertainty with TD 14 as well. TD 13 has the greater potential between the two even though the forecast is far from certain and TD 14 is expected to bring at least some impacts to the northwestern Gulf next week.
Below is the 5-day forecast for TD 13. TD 13 has struggled a bit since yesterday morning and you could make the argument that it is now more of an open wave and no longer a tropical depression with a closed circulation. The distinction isn't that important at the moment. The forecast is for TD 13 to struggle a little longer and then start to slowly intensify as conditions improve over the next few days. It is possible that it never strengthens beyond its current state but at least some strengthening seems most likely. How much it intensifies somewhat depends on how far south it tracks, with a track over Puerto Rico and the Greater Antilles being not good for strengthening due to land interaction. Because of this the model guidance ranges from TD 13 being anything from an open wave to a major hurricane in the Gulf. The NHC forecast reflects the middle of these possibilities. How it may interact with TD 14 is also unknown.
TD 14 is struggling a bit as well but it is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. It is forecast to strengthen up until when it makes landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula where it will weaken over land. The forecast is then for it to restrengthen as it emerges over the Gulf and heads towards the Texas/Louisiana border. The official forecast is for it to be a hurricane at landfall, but the NHC is somewhat doubtful that conditions will support that much strengthening.
Folks along the northern to northeastern Gulf Coast should start thinking about preparations as we may be looking at a hurricane in the eastern Gulf around Tuesday. Coastal residents in the northwest Gulf should start thinking about preparations as well.
I'll send out another update by tomorrow morning.
Chris
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