September 14, 2020
As of the 4 p.m. update Sally is now a 100 mph category 2 hurricane. It is now forecast to make landfall as a 110 mph storm just west of the AL/MS border right around midnight Tuesday night. The NHC notes that additional eastward adjustments may be needed as they are favoring the GFS forecast which is more to the west than most other models. Here's a statement from the NHC regarding the track: "The specific timing and location of the turn will be critical as to the eventual location and timing of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast." I still think we won't know where it's going to make landfall until maybe 12 hours out. The hurricane warning has been extended east to Navarre, FL with this advisory. Sally is expected to continue to intensify but there will be some factors that will slow the intensification process. I think we might see a storm stronger than 110 mph, but hopefully not too much stronger than a low end cat 3.
With Sally intensifying quicker than any model had predicted, it may take until tomorrow morning around the time of the 10 a.m. update before the models catch up to what the storm is doing. There is still a lot of spread from model to model and from run to run. Hopefully this consolidates some overnight and we see some trends where the models start to match what is actually happening. The HWRF has been close, but even it is playing catch up.
I'll send out another update in the morning. Have a good evening.
Chris
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