September 14, 2020
I think I got the day right this time...I again wanted to wait until the full advisory at 10 a.m. to send an update because the track has been shifting a little with each forecast. Sally is still trying to organize this morning, with the storm center bouncing around a bit as it tries to align itself from the surface up through the atmosphere. Sally is still a 65 mph storm and is forecast to become a hurricane later today on it's way to making landfall as a 90 mph storm on the Mississippi coast. The center of Sally has reformed to the east of its previous location and the track guidance is over to the east some more, so the official track and cone have shifted to the east again. This is what I was concerned about late last night, but at least the shift east has only been subtle since then and the intensity forecast is still the same. We shouldn't see any major changes but I'm afraid that we might not really know that landfall point until 12 hours or so before it happens, although we should be able to narrow it down as we get closer. People in the extreme western Panhandle are going to have to watch Sally all the way in just in case it keeps coming east. I still think a storm of category 2 strength is possible, but that looks a little less likely this morning.
The SPC has placed the Florida Panhandle and parts of the surrounding area in a marginal risk area for severe weather over the next three days due to a slight chance of tornadoes associated with Sally. These areas will probably shift around a bit so stay aware of any watches that may be issued for your area. I probably won't make an update again on this unless the risk increases.
That's it for now, we'll keep watching to see what might change.
Have a good Monday and a good week.
Chris
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