Quick Morning Update on the Tropics

September 10, 2020

Today marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season (yay...) and the 5-day outlook doesn't disappoint in this regard. I wanted to provide a quick update (ok, maybe not so quick now that I've written it...), mainly due to the potential for short term development in the Gulf. Two surface low pressure systems, one northeast of the Bahamas and one in the northeastern Gulf, are being watched by the NHC and have been given a 30% and 20% chance of development respectively. Conditions in the Gulf will be favorable for development, although the eastern western (edit: 9/11/2020) most system will encounter some wind shear, but there is very little organization with both systems and they won't have a lot of time over water before they move over land this weekend or early next week. Other than a few hints from a couple of ensemble members models aren't bullish on these. I just don't think they'll have time to really spin up and get going. I think the system near the Bahamas is the one to watch more closely as it looks a little healthier and will have the best conditions, so it's possible we see this develop into a tropical storm in the Atlantic or northeastern Gulf. Right now I'm not too concerned about either but anytime we see low pressure systems starting to form in an area with favorable conditions they need to be watched.

There's nothing new to say about Paulette and Rene. Again it's still possible Paulette tries to sneak in towards the East Coast but I think that's unlikely. Rene is what is fondly called a "fish storm" by some, it's expected to curve out to sea and only bother the fishes :).

I'm getting a little more concerned about the wave coming off of Africa. It is the red 'x' and long red oval in the eastern Atlantic. There are stronger indications that this system may not curve out to sea as it heads west. The GFS, ECMWF (Euro), and Canadian operational models bring a storm into the northern Lesser Antilles and then northeastern Caribbean mid next week. The GFS and Euro ensemble members are somewhat split on this so a track more to the north and out to sea is still a potential solution, although I think a track to the west is slightly favored. We're well beyond the 3-5 day range that I like to stay within for forecasting but I want to let you know how models have been trending. I think it's virtually certain we'll see this wave develop, we just need to watch where it goes after that. I think we'll have a better idea this weekend or early next week.

The orange oval is yet another wave that will enter the Atlantic this weekend, something else to watch...

Have a great rest of the week. I'll send out another update as the picture evolves.

Chris