September 15, 2020
Some good news this morning, Hurricane Sally decreased in strength a bit overnight and now has 85 mph winds, down from 100 mph. Sally does have a ragged eye now but it wasn't able to completely close off the eye enough overnight to allow for strengthening. Sally is now being impacted by wind shear and upwelling has even started to cool the water beneath the storm by a few degrees. Sally is not forecast to strengthen and may actually start to weaken before landfall although a few models support slight strengthening. The forecast with the 10 a.m. advisory is for Sally to make landfall tomorrow morning as an 80-85 mph storm near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The NHC shifted the early part of the track a bit more to the east but kept the later part the same. The NHC is favoring the GFS and ECMWF tracks which they deem the most reliable right now. There are still quite a few models showing a track more to the east so we'll see if there are a few more slight shifts before landfall.
Even though it is weakening Sally is still a dangerous storm. The NHC has called the potential for flooding 'historic.' with storm surge and inland flooding from rain being huge concerns.
The Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast are currently under a tornado watch and I expect the threat to continue through tomorrow. Several rotating storms have been noted by radar offshore but so far I haven't seen anything come ashore.
This may be my only update for today unless there are significant changes in the track or intensity. You all know what to do in this kind of weather so stay safe.
Chris
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