October 4, 2020
PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) 26 has formed in the Caribbean. The PTC designation is given to systems that are expected to be TCs (tropical cyclones) soon so that the NHC can start issuing advisories for them before they are "officially" TCs. It is expected to become a tropical depression and then a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Four days out it is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds with some weakening possible prior to landfall. You can see the forecast cone below. I haven't had a chance to dig into the forecast, but I understand there's good confidence in the track out to 3 days with increasing uncertainty beyond that.
Since Gamma is still out there I've included the cone for it below, but I think PTC 26 is considered the greater threat to the US at this time. It'll be interesting to see how these two systems in the Gulf will interact with each other.
Here's the 5-day tropical outlook. The yellow areas in the Atlantic aren't expected to be threats to land.
I'll send out a better update on PTC 26, soon to be named Delta, tomorrow morning.
Chris
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