November 11, 2020
First of all Happy Veterans Day! Second of all, what a difference a day makes, or day and a half. I just realized that I called the last email I sent on Monday night "Tuesday Night Update...," I'm not sure what that was about...I'll correct the blog, you all make pen and ink changes on your end...Also, nobody responded to tell me what they thought the spaghetti models looked like...Anyhow, Eta is now solidly headed just north of Tampa and I think we can feel good that this forecast won't change. Eta has regained hurricane strength but is expected to weaken some before landfall tomorrow.
Frankly I don't understand everything that caused so many changes in the forecast and models. I was really starting to think this was going to go to the west. Maybe this will turn into a case study so I can learn more. I think partly it was due to some better data we got yesterday from a hurricane hunter flying around the far outer edge of the storm sampling the large scale environment. I think it is also due in part to Eta being a little stronger than expected, a weaker storm would have headed more to the northwest. Below is an animation of the forecast cone changes since Friday the 6th. Once this is all over I'll make an animation of Eta's entire life in the cone through four landfalls.
Elsewhere in the tropics, Theta is doing its thing to the east. The red area in the Caribbean has been designated Invest 98L. Right now it is mainly considered to be a threat to Central America, and maybe quite a substantial one. In the long term we'll have to watch and see if it tries to come north.
That is it for today. We'll keep an eye on 98L, which will probably become Iota soon. Conditions are also generally favorable for even more development in the Caribbean so we will have to keep an eye out for that over the next few weeks.
Chris
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