Quick Tropical Weather Update - Friday May 21

May 21, 2021

You can see on the 5-day outlook below that there are two areas of interest being watched by the NHC, the one in the Gulf popped up yesterday. Invest 90L in the Atlantic may bring some impacts to Bermuda, but otherwise isn't expected to impact land. Invest 91L in the Gulf may make a run at becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm, but at the most I think we're looking at some wind and more rain (which is not needed) for Texas (edit: and Louisiana) tonight and tomorrow.

Have a good Friday and a great weekend.

Chris

First Tropical Weather Update for 2021 and Season Outlook

May 15, 2021

The hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1st, but due to the pre-season activity that has occurred the last several years the National Hurricane Center decided to start providing tropical weather outlooks early. So with that said today we have the first outlook for the 2021 season, with no activity expected over the next 5 days. 

Beyond 5 days it is possible that a subtropical or tropical system could try to spin up near the Florida Straits or over Cuba between Thursday and Tuesday. Other than the GFS there's not much model support so at this point I'd say something significant developing is unlikely. If something were to form I think it'd mainly be a rainmaker and it could head towards the northern Gulf or to the northeast across the Bahamas. I'm really only mentioning it because you'll probably see some noise about it on social media.

What can we expect this season? There are many seasonal forecasts you can find but mostly I like to look at NOAA's and Colorado State's. If you're curious the following site shows predictions from a bunch of sources in graphical form: https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/predictions.

NOAA's forecast doesn't come out until the 20th. CSU's initial forecast was released April 8th (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html). They are predicting above-normal activity with 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Noteworthy is their probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall in these areas:

1) Entire continental U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)

If you follow this link you can see impact probabilities for individual states and counties: https://tropical.colostate.edu/resources.html

Crown Weather Service provides a great forecast as well which you can see here: https://crownweather.com/index.php/discussions/2021-atlantic-caribbean-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-season-forecast-issued-march-10/. I highly recommend a subscription to their weather service. I'll let you follow the link and read, but their forecast numbers, which were published March 10, are similar to CSU's.

Seasonal forecasts have value but they can't tell you when or where storms may impact land or how strong they will be. As you've heard before all it takes it one storm impacting you for it to matter. Today is also the last day of Hurricane Preparedness Week, not that you can't continue to prepare... The following link has a wealth of information on things to consider and how to prepare: https://www.weather.gov/wrn/hurricane-preparedness.

That's it for today. I'll send out updates at least biweekly or more frequently as conditions warrant.

Have a great weekend!

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Through Tuesday

May 9, 2021

Short severe weather update this morning. Severe weather is possible over the next three days. Right now the highest impact is to our west today with some of this creeping into northwest AL. The risk is more confined to the coast / southern half of AL Monday and Tuesday. I'll send an update tomorrow if it is warranted.

Today

Tomorrow

Tuesday

Have a great Mother's Day and a great week.

Chris

Severe Weather Outlook for Today Through Thursday

May 4, 2021

Happy May the 4th for those of you so inclined to celebrate!

The severe weather risk for today is about the same as when we looked at it yesterday. The enhanced risk area has expanded a little bit both to the southeast and west. Damaging winds is the main threat with hail and isolated tornadoes possible as well. Stormy weather is ongoing in northern AL and central to eastern TN. This will continue to move off to the east which should bring a little clearing after lunchtime for parts north of Birmingham. This will be followed by a second system moving in from the west in the mid afternoon. It looks like we may see a squall line crossing AL from Birmingham south through the FL Panhandle from mid afternoon through the late evening with less organized stormy weather from Birmingham north. Around midnight a third round will move through southern AL bringing more storms to the FL Panhandle before daybreak. The simulated radar animation I've attached depicts all of this fairly well but expect some differences in timing and location.

Simulated Radar Through Noon Tomorrow (expect this to change)

Following today's weather a front will slowly move through the lower southeast region causing stormy weather to linger near the coast through at least Thursday morning. There will be some severe weather possible but the risk is not as high as it is today.

Today

Tomorrow

Thursday

Unless something significant pops up for tomorrow this will be my last update for this event. The weather looks pretty nice for most of the region Friday and Saturday with rain possible going into Sunday for northern AL and TN.

Have a great week and stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Remains Possible Today through Wednesday

May 3, 2021

Looking at the latest guidance from the SPC the possibility for severe weather over the next few days remains. For today the risk has increased to slight for a portion of central and eastern AL. Much of the rest of AL and central-eastern TN remain in a marginal risk area. The probability for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are shown below. Expect scattered thunderstorms on and off throughout the day with perhaps the bulk of the weather occurring between Birmingham and the AL/FL line.

For tomorrow the SPC has increased the risk level to enhanced for much of AL and parts of central-southern TN. A large slight risk area covers most of the southern portion of AL with a marginal risk area extending into the western FL Panhandle.Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main threats. There is also a hail threat, mainly through LA and MS, that extends through NW AL and central TN. I don't have any specific details about timing. Daybreak Tuesday morning could see a remnant storm system from Monday night's weather to the northwest move through central TN and northern AL. From there it looks like a squall line associated with a cold front will form about midday near the Mississippi Valley area to the west. Severe storms are possible with this line as it moves east into AL and TN from late afternoon through late evening and overnight to the south. Isolated storms will form ahead of the front throughout the day with some of these possibly severe as well.

On Wednesday the severe threat will linger as the front sweeps through the FL Panhandle. We'll have to wait for more details on timing and severity but I don't expect severe weather to be too widespread.

Today

Tomorrow

Wednesday

Have a great week and stay safe.

Chris

 

Severe Weather Possible Today through Tuesday

May 2, 2021

Three days of severe weather are possible to start the week. For today the highest risk is to the west but a portion of AL and the extreme western FL Panhandle are in a slight and moderate risk areas with all severe modes possible. Severe timing looks to be from this afternoon through the evening as storms move in from the south and west.

For tomorrow the main severe weather threat will be to our north and northwest but a large portion of AL and TN is in a marginal risk area. Expect scattered thunderstorms to be possible from the morning through the evening, with a few being severe

Not a lot of details yet for Tuesday but for now most of AL and TN is in a slight risk area with a marginal risk covering the southern portion of AL and the western half of the FL Panhandle. We'll know more about this threat tomorrow.

Expect rainy weather through at least midweek with the weather clearing in NW AL Wednesday morning but not moving out of FL Panhandle until Thursday morning.

Today

Monday

Tuesday

5-Day Rainfall

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and have a good start to your week. I'll send an update tomorrow about what Tuesday's threat looks like.

Chris