August 16, 2021
There were a few slight changes to the forecast for Fred overnight. The track has shifted to the east with the center of the forecast cone bringing Fred ashore on Panama CIty Beach just east of Hwy 79 as a 60 mph tropical storm. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the tornado risk from 2% to 5% and is expecting the first round of (potentially) tornado producing storms to come ashore near Apalachicola Bay between 9-11 a.m. EDT. A tornado watch was just issued for this area. Other impacts remain about the same.
The GFS and operational HWRF have backed off a bit on their intensification forecast from last night. Both models strengthen the storm just shy of hurricane strength prior to landfall. The intensity only version of the HWRF has the storm as a low end cat 1. There is an experimental model showing a similar solution as well but again the majority of models are not showing this outcome. The NHC did mention in their discussion that conditions will become slightly more favorable for strengthening and a hurricane hunter currently in the storm is finding lower pressures. I think these models are picking up on this possibility but they may be overdoing it, we'll see.
Unless there are significant changes to the track, intensity, or tornado risk this will be my last major update. I'm going to keep an eye out for tornado producing bands and send out updates on those when needed.
Grace and TD 8 near Bermuda don't look to be threats to us at this time but we'll talk more about those later.
Have a good day.
Chris
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