August 30, 2021
Ida is still bringing impacts to LA, MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle. Now that the main threat is over it's time to look at the rest of the tropics.
The NHC's 5-Day Outlook below looks busy but the only area we're interested in at this time is the yellow area in the western Caribbean. I previously mentioned a few times that we'd need to watch this area again this week. Well it is here now but the good news is that models aren't anywhere near as excited about it as they were when Ida was forming. Out of the 51 EPS and 31 GEFS ensemble members only a few from each show development while the operational ECMWF and GFS show no development at all at this time. The Canadian model ensembles show a stronger signal but it isn't looked upon as seriously as the other models. Additionally, the majority of the genesis guidance show little to no development. It is something to watch but I'm not really concerned about it at this point.
TD Ten is a fish storm (it's going to stay out to sea and only bother the fishes if you're not familiar with that term). The area in the east Atlantic is a strong tropical wave that will move off the coast today. This has a high chance of development but it looks like it will probably recurve and become another fish storm, something else to watch in the short term.
That is all I'm watching for today. We're just a few days away from what is historically the peak of the season so we're likely not done just yet, but for the moment there are no immediate concerns. Hopefully the continuing impacts from Ida aren't too much of an issue for anyone. We'll see what daybreak reveals in Louisiana today. Those folks are going to need a lot of help so if you have the means consider providing support.
Have a great week.
Chris
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