September 10, 2021
Happy climatological peak of hurricane season day! And right on cue, there are several areas to watch. The main thing I'm going to discuss today is the area of interest shown in the western Caribbean below. The NHC gives this area a 40% chance of development over two days and a 70% chance over 5 days, I expect we'll see it become an invest soon.
The NHC expects a tropical depression to form late this weekend or early next week with the storm then making landfall in the western Gulf of Mexico. What we need to watch is for this to curve out over the Gulf similar to what the system that eventually became Mindy did. Models aren't showing much development but one GEFS member curves the storm around and brings it into Louisiana as a hurricane next Wednesday. That is 1 out of 31 members, which could very easily be an outlier, but because this follows a similar pattern as the last system it has me curious as it often seems like the atmosphere has a memory of sorts with successive storms following the same pattern. To be clear I'm not forecasting this to happen but it's something to watch for. It may not come that far east but I think the upper Texas coast should be watching for sure.
Next on the horizon is another area to watch in the Caribbean mid-week, not a strong signal at this point but something to watch for. Around the same time another strong wave will come off of Africa that may stay south long enough to cause trouble to the US or at least the islands about 10 days from now. The eastern wave (red area off Africa) marked on the current outlook will probably curve out to sea but it's something to keep an eye on as well.
Nothing imminent thankfully but several areas to keep an eye on, this is normal for this time of year especially given the seasonal forecasts calling for an above average season.
Have a good weekend.
Chris
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