Severe Weather Possible Tonight Through Sunday

April 15, 2022

I hope everyone is enjoying the brief break in the weather, it's beautiful down here along the coast. A rainy/stormy weekend is in store and as I guessed, severe weather is in the forecast. I had thought we'd only see a chance tomorrow but it looks like different areas will have a risk for a few severe storms over the next three days.

For today there is a marginal risk of severe weather for most of northern AL and a part of middle TN with the main threats being damaging winds and hail, both with a 5% chance. Severe storm timing is overnight through early morning, with the threat persisting into the late morning from Birmingham south (will be covered in Day 2 below).

Day 1 Outlook (now through 7 a.m. Saturday)

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

For tomorrow there is a marginal risk from Birmingham south to the coast, again with a 5% chance of damaging winds and hail. Severe timing will be morning through afternoon for middle AL and a little later for areas near the coast.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday)

Mobile-Pensacola

The possibility for severe weather will linger into Sunday as a front approaches and finally pushes out this stalled system that's been hanging around since mid-week. There's a marginal risk of severe weather from just south of Birmingham through the FL panhandle with a small slight risk region protruding into southwest AL and a tiny part of the western FL panhandle. There's not a lot of detail yet but it looks like damaging winds and hail are the main risks, with a 15% chance in the slight area and a 5% chance everywhere else. Severe storm timing looks to be Sunday afternoon through the evening.

Day 3 (7 a.m. Sunday through 7 a.m. Monday)

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Rain chances will increase later today with at least a chance of rain for the region through Monday morning. Estimated rain totals through Monday morning are below.

Regarding a few previous forecasts, the forecast for Tuesday the 5th was pretty much on target. There were numerous severe weather reports where the worst weather was expected, with perhaps the northern extent not being quite as far north as the forecast.

The severe forecast for April 6th didn't verify at all. That's the way it is with severe weather sometimes. Most of the area was in a slight risk area with a portion of eastern AL in an enhanced risk area, which is where the few storm reports were located.

For Wednesday the 13th the forecast was again better, although it looks like there was more activity in the western-middle portion of AL versus to the northwest where the higher risk area was initially. There wasn't a single report for Thursday the 14th, which isn't so much a bust given that the chance was fairly low. I have one correction from Thursday also. I mentioned that a tornado could not be ruled out but tornadoes were never in the forecast. I had a hunch on Wednesday that we'd see at least a small 2% tornado chance corridor on Thursday but that never happened.

That's it for today. I think we'll see some of these forecast regions evolve a bit but I don't think we'll see much increase in risk. So with that said I'm not going to send any more updates this weekend unless there's a big change. Have a great Easter weekend and stay safe. We might see the next chance of rain around Wednesday or Thursday but chances look low right now.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow and Thursday

April 12, 2022

Well, severe weather is again in the forecast but thankfully the risk isn't as high as we've seen over the past few weeks. A cold front will sweep through the area from mid-evening tomorrow through Thursday morning, at which point it will stall in a position from near the coast up through southeast AL and northwest Georgia. Severe weather is possible with the front first for AL, middle and eastern TN, and the western FL Panhandle as it enters northwestern AL in the mid-evening and moves through overnight and then for the central and eastern FL Panhandle later Thursday morning as the front continues south and east. As you can see in the Day 2 Outlook below the highest risk is for northwest AL with the risk decreasing going east-southeast. For Wednesday through early Thursday the main risk is damaging winds with an isolated tornado or two and hail also possible. For Thursday the main risk is damaging winds but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Not every area had timing graphics yet but I included what I could find.

Tomorrow Through Early Thursday

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Thursday After 7 a.m.

The stalled front will lift slowly north on Friday bringing messy weather for the weekend that might not clear until the next system pushes it out sometime Monday into Tuesday next week. It's not in the forecast yet but I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe weather risk area in the forecast for Saturday as we get closer.

That's it for this evening. Have a good rest of the week and stay safe.

Chris

Update on Severe Weather Chances for Today

April 6, 2022

While the severe weather forecast for today has expanded to the east it remains mostly the same for those in FL, AL, and TN. This will be a short update this morning but the maps below should tell you what you need to know. As always, stay aware of conditions in your area. The SPC still has an enhanced risk area but thankfully the tornado threat is only 5% in AL and TN, with the main threat being damaging winds in this area (30% chance) and maybe some hail. Timing still looks roughly the same, afternoon through the evening.

Chattanooga Area

Huntsville Area

Birmingham

Mobile-Pensacola

Panama City Area

That's it for today. The weekend still looks pretty nice with the next system moving in Monday into Tuesday. Have a good rest of the week.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday and Wednesday

April 4, 2022

Another two rounds of severe weather are possible this week although I don't think it'll be quite as bad as last week. On Tuesday (Day 2) the SPC has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for AL from just south of Birmingham to the coast including a tiny sliver of NW FL. A slight risk extends just north of Birmingham and throughout the rest of the AL and FL panhandles not covered by the enhanced risk. There is a 10% chance of a tornado in the enhanced area, including a hatched portion representing significant tornadoes possible (EF2 or stronger) that I don't think will affect anyone on this list. The enhanced area also coincides with 30% and 15% damaging wind and hail risks respectively. The slight risk area has 5%/15%/5% tornado/wind/hail chances. A marginal risk area covers nearly the rest of AL north of Birmingham with associated risks as shown in the graphic.

These will be daytime storms for a change with timing from late morning through evening from west to east as shown in the timing graphics.

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Emerald Coast

On Wednesday (Day 3) more severe weather is possible from a separate system. Some of you that will miss out on the worst threat on Tuesday will get your chance on Wednesday. Since we're still a few days away from this I'm going to save the description and just let you look at the graphics as this will likely change at least a little bit. The severe threat on Wednesday will be a little later than the day before, expect things to ramp in the afternoon and extend into the evening.

Chattanooga Area

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile-Pensacola

Emerald Coast

In case you're curious, here are the rain totals for these two systems.

The severe weather event last Wednesday was quite busy as you can see on the storm report map below. At my location we had our third tornado warning of this season and it was the second time we had to take shelter in that many weeks. The storm that went near my house (it wasn't on the ground yet) went on to kill two people a few counties to the east.

Except for a chance of rain in TN Friday and Saturday the weather looks pretty nice for the rest of us through the weekend. The cool trend looks to be coming to an end soon at least for the short term. Stay safe the next few days, if a significant update comes out I'll let you know.

Chris