April 4, 2022
Another two rounds of severe weather are possible this week although I don't think it'll be quite as bad as last week. On Tuesday (Day 2) the SPC has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather for AL from just south of Birmingham to the coast including a tiny sliver of NW FL. A slight risk extends just north of Birmingham and throughout the rest of the AL and FL panhandles not covered by the enhanced risk. There is a 10% chance of a tornado in the enhanced area, including a hatched portion representing significant tornadoes possible (EF2 or stronger) that I don't think will affect anyone on this list. The enhanced area also coincides with 30% and 15% damaging wind and hail risks respectively. The slight risk area has 5%/15%/5% tornado/wind/hail chances. A marginal risk area covers nearly the rest of AL north of Birmingham with associated risks as shown in the graphic.
These will be daytime storms for a change with timing from late morning through evening from west to east as shown in the timing graphics.
Huntsville Area
Birmingham Area
Mobile-Pensacola
Emerald Coast
On Wednesday (Day 3) more severe weather is possible from a separate system. Some of you that will miss out on the worst threat on Tuesday will get your chance on Wednesday. Since we're still a few days away from this I'm going to save the description and just let you look at the graphics as this will likely change at least a little bit. The severe threat on Wednesday will be a little later than the day before, expect things to ramp in the afternoon and extend into the evening.
Chattanooga Area
Huntsville Area
Birmingham Area
Mobile-Pensacola
Emerald Coast
In case you're curious, here are the rain totals for these two systems.
The severe weather event last Wednesday was quite busy as you can see on the storm report map below. At my location we had our third tornado warning of this season and it was the second time we had to take shelter in that many weeks. The storm that went near my house (it wasn't on the ground yet) went on to kill two people a few counties to the east.
Except for a chance of rain in TN Friday and Saturday the weather looks pretty nice for the rest of us through the weekend. The cool trend looks to be coming to an end soon at least for the short term. Stay safe the next few days, if a significant update comes out I'll let you know.
Chris
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