May 15, 2022
Here we are at the first tropical weather post for the 2022 season. While hurricane season doesn't officially begin until June 1st, a few years ago the National Hurricane Center started issuing the first outlook of the season on May 15th due to the early season activity that's been occurring. All you really need to know is shown on the NHC 5-Day Outlook below, no activity expected. The rest of this post will cover the expectations for the season as a whole and the potential for early season activity in the Caribbean starting as early as next Friday.
This year is expected to be another above average season. Colorado State University (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) is calling for 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (category 3 or stronger). Florida (the whole state) has a 96% chance of a named storm impact with the northern Gulf Coast counties in the 50% range (https://tropical.colostate.edu/TC_impact.html). For the northern Gulf Coast counties probabilities of a hurricane and major hurricane impact are in the upper 20ish percentile range and near 10% respectively. So in seasons with similar expected activity and steering patterns as this one there is roughly a 1 in 3 chance of a hurricane impact and a 1 in 10 chance of a major hurricane impact for any given county along the northern Florida Gulf Coast. See the previous link for county by county numbers. Other seasonal forecasts are in the same vein but that is more or less all you need to know.
As an aside, the local weather offices and National Hurricane Center are always great sources of info. If you're looking for some extra information that is very reliable year after year, Crown Weather Services is second to none. I'm a subscriber and have been for many years. A variety of subscriptions are available. They send out emails and have a great website with tons of info (not just about tropical weather). You can find them here: https://crownweather.com/.
Regarding the potential for early season activity, there have been some hints (okay, more than just hints) that we may see some activity in the western Caribbean as early as this coming Friday. The GFS (the US's main global weather model) and the GEFS (a multi-model ensemble of the GFS) has consistently been showing development in this area. The Canadian and UK ensembles have also been showing the potential for development here. The ECMWF (Euro) ensembles aren't as bullish and are indicating more of a chance of development in the Eastern Pacific. You may see some social media posts showing a hurricane in the Gulf sometime next week. While this isn't an impossibility it is not very likely this time of year for a number of reasons. What we see most often in the early season are highly sheared easterly weighted storms that are windy rainmakers. At this point it's too far out to know if, when, and where something may form. I just want you to have a heads up because of the stuff you're likely to see online. If it helps, the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook isn't showing any development through May 24th.
That's it for this first post of the season. It's a good idea to start getting a hurricane kit together (https://www.floridadisaster.org/planprepare/hurricane-supply-checklist/ or similar) and to think about what your evacuation plans may look like.
Have a good week, I'll send another update by the end of the week. For those that are interested, all of these are posted to my blog (https://www.deepsouthwx.com/) and you can also follow me on Twitter @DeepSouthWXUS.
Chris
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