Tropical Weather Update

August 1, 2022

There's really not much going on in the tropics but since it's been a few weeks I thought I'd send an update. The 5-Day Outlook from the NHC pretty much says it all. A few weeks ago it looked like activity was going to pick up around the end of July but that just hasn't happened. It's not unusual for there to be a lull in July but it's atypical to go as long as we have since the last named storm. There have been some healthy tropical waves coming off of Africa but the environment ahead of them in the Atlantic has been hostile for development. 

Right now it looks like we'll remain in this reduced activity state for at least ten more days, although there is a small signal that we may see something in the Caribbean in the 7-10 day timeframe. Looking beyond 10 days there isn't much of a signal for development either although sooner or later this is expected to change. The climatological peak of hurricane season is about six weeks away. I haven't seen any changes to the earlier forecasts for this season so I'd expect to see a ramp up in activity in 3-4 weeks at the latest.

That's it for today. I'll send another update if something pops up or if the longer range signals start showing something interesting.

Have a good week.

Chris