Tropical Weather Update

August 17, 2022

There's nothing to be concerned about right now but activity in the tropics looks like it is going to start picking up so I figured it was a good time for an update. First of all, the thing in the Caribbean shown below on the NHC's 5-Day Outlook is nothing to be concerned about unless you're in Mexico or south Texas. Even then it is likely to be a rainmaker at most. There was another yellow spot in the Gulf last week that I didn't bother you about because it was never expected to do much and that is indeed what happened (or didn't).

Looking out a week or two there are no big concerns but there are some signals that the tropics are starting to wake up. If you see posts on social media showing multiple storms in the Gulf and Atlantic you can ignore them as it's too far out to forecast anything that specific. What it does tell us is that models are starting to pick up on the potential for development.

The first chance for development may come as early as next Tuesday or Wednesday. Both the GFS (US) and Canadian operational models show development in the western Caribbean of a tropical wave that is currently approaching the Lesser Antilles. The Euro shows no development of this wave at all and neither do the GFS ensembles (which is interesting given that the operational GFS does). For what it's worth a few members of the Canadian and European ensembles show development but not enough to say that there's a strong signal. Overall it looks like a low chance that this wave develops but given that it would be in close proximity to the Gulf with a potential to track to the north or northwest it's something to watch.

Next up to watch is a wave that is just pushing off the coast of Africa. The GFS and GFS ensembles show the possibility of development with this wave around next weekend about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Africa. The Euro doesn't develop this wave at all but there is a subtle signal for development in the Euro ensembles. It's way to early to say what areas may be at risk were this to develop. Another thing to watch but not a concern for now. From what I'm seeing I don't think this would bother the Gulf but that's not certain.

Two more waves will push off of Africa next Wednesday or Thursday and then another the last few days of the month. There are signals for both of these to develop (depending on the model) but this is too far out to talk about. Taking this all together the main point is that there is a good chance we'll start to see activity in the tropics in the next two weeks and with the climatological peak of the season approaching I'd expect this to continue at least until mid September if not longer.

That's it for this evening, I'll let you know next time there's something important to watch. You're hurricane kit and plan should be already in good shape but if you've been slacking now's a good time to get it together.

Have a good rest of the week.

Chris