Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow - Maybe Some Activity in the Tropics to Watch

October 24, 2022

Fall severe weather season is here. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is forecasting a moderate to slight risk of severe weather tomorrow for the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Tennessee. Isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all possible with their associated probabilities shown below. According to the current Day 2 Outlook the highest chance for severe storms looks to be in the western half of AL with the main tornado threat in a corridor west-southwest of Birmingham and north of Mobile. Based on the SPC's discussion it is possible that we'll see the slight area shift or expand to the east a bit with later updates. Expect isolated showers and storms moving in from the south-southwest from the morning hours through midday followed by a line of storms moving west to east ahead of a cold front with the main severe threat along the squall line. This line should clear northern AL by mid evening, central AL and Eastern TN a few hours later, and the Panama City area around midnight. The severe threat should diminish a bit as the storms move east later in the day.

Day 2 Outlook

Huntsville

Birmingham-Montgomery Area

Pensacola Area

Panama City Area

Turning to the tropics there are a few areas being watched in the Atlantic but the chances for development are low and I don't think they will be a threat to land.

Other than the above there are some model runs hinting at development in the Caribbean later this week through the beginning of November. There is enough of a signal that I do think there is some chance of development but right now impacts to the Gulf Coast seem unlikely. I'll let you know if there's something to be concerned about.

Back up here in the mid latitudes we're getting into the fall pattern of regular cold fronts moving through, after tomorrow expect another system around the weekend. It also looks like the cooler than normal weather is coming to end for maybe a few weeks with the 14 day forecast calling for above average temps.

That's it for today. If the severe weather threat changes significantly I'll let you know. It's been a little while since we've had severe weather so make sure you're keeping an eye out for changing weather conditions and that you have a plan should a warning be issued for your area.

Chris