October 2, 2022
The late-starting 2022 hurricane season continues. The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave that is making its way towards the Caribbean. This wave, shown in yellow, has a 20% chance of development over 2 days and a 30% chance of development over 5 days. The synopsis is that this is something to watch but right now it's not concerning, if you want more details read on (you can ignore the red area farther east).
So far models other than the Canadian aren't too bullish on development. The Euro doesn't develop this wave at all as it moves west across the Caribbean over the next week. The GFS tries to develop the wave east of the Leeward Islands before showing a weak storm fall apart quickly in the Caribbean with no redevelopment afterwards (depending on the run). The Canadian model also starts development east of the Leeward Island and brings a storm all the way across the Caribbean into Central America a week from now. Looking at the ensembles, only a few of the Euro ensembles (EPS) develop this wave and even those wait until the central or western Caribbean for that to start. Just a few of the GFS ensemble members (not counting a few members that show development east of the islands) show development in the central or western Caribbean, probably a few more than the Euro but not a very strong signal. The Canadian ensemble members on the other hand are showing a strong signal for development, but I don't think that is correct.
I think the Euro solution makes the most sense at least in the near term. I don't think this wave will develop east of the islands. It looks pretty healthy on satellite but I think wind shear from a system to its north will limit development. If it does develop I agree with the GFS in that it will be short lived and fall apart quickly in the eastern Caribbean (which is notably a hostile area for development, except in Ian's case). The Canadian model and ensembles seem way too aggressive. One reason I think this is because of the lack of support from the other models, and seldom is the Canadian correct when it comes to tropical cyclogenesis. I think it also may be underestimating the effect of wind shear through the islands and eastern Caribbean or it may just be a model bias. Either way, the idea of the wave waiting until the central or western Caribbean to develop matches climatology (what typically happens). Two other pieces of good news. One is that I'm not seeing many tracks that bring this system north. The second is that as of now the central and northern Gulf look to be quite hostile to any storm that may come that way. The bottom line is that while I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a tropical depression if not a stronger storm develop around a week from now I think an impact to the US looks like a low probably at this point.
Regarding Ian, I hope if any of you have friends or relatives that were impacted by that storm that they are safe and able to start the road to recovery. Some of you know just how long that can be. The name Ian will likely be retired and as a piece of trivia "I" named storms are the most retired out of all the letters.
Here in the southeast, the beautiful if not a bit warm and dry fall weather will continue for a while. It was nice to get a break from the rain but a shower or two would be nice. It doesn't look like our next chance will come again until maybe as late as the end of next week, but hopefully sooner.
Have a great week.
Chris
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