Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow Into Wednesday

January 2, 2023

Happy New Year! I hope you all had a Merry Christmas and have enjoyed the holiday season!

It looks like we'll enjoy milder if not warm temperatures for a few weeks (don't worry, the cold will return). Along with the warmth we'll also see our first chance of severe weather for the new year. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting an enhanced (orange) and slight risk (yellow) of severe weather for our area tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours, with a marginal risk Wednesday morning for areas farther east. Note that within the enhanced region there is a 10% chance of tornados with significant severe weather (EF2 or stronger tornadoes) possible. Damaging winds and hail are also possible throughout the region. Timing is tricky with multiple rounds of severe weather possible and with the severity of each dependent on how conditions evolve throughout the day so take a look at the graphics for your area and consult local media outlets for more details. As of this writing there was no graphic from the Tallahassee NWS office but for areas from Walton County east expect timing to be later in the evening Tuesday through noon on Wednesday and the overall threat to be less severe than areas to the west.

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Tuesday - 7 a.m. Wednesday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Wednesday - 7 a.m. Thursday)

Mobile-Pensacola Area

Birmingham Area

Huntsville Area

After the weather clears the area around midday Wednesday we'll see some cooler (but not real cold) weather in its wake. The next chance for rain will be Saturday into Sunday as a weak cold front passes through. Right now no significant storms or rainfall are expected this weekend.

If you're curious, here is how the forecast for the last event on December 14th verified. The SPC increased the threat to moderate later in the day for a small area to our west. All in all it looks like it was a pretty good forecast.

Have a great week and stay safe. For those in the higher risk areas make sure you have multiple ways of receiving alerts and stay tuned to local weather outlets for the latest information. I'll send out an update tomorrow if the forecast changes enough to warrant it.

Chris