Tropical Weather Update - May 30

May 30, 2023

It is time for the first tropical weather update of the 2023 season. The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 7-Day Outlook shows an area in the Gulf of Mexico with a 20% chance of development through 7 days (0% through 2 days [edit: this should have been 10% through 2 days]). The system of concern is a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms in the central Gulf that's expected to hang out for much of the week before moving off to the east this weekend. Conditions for development are "only marginally favorable" according to the NHC and in general computer models aren't showing much in the way of development in the near term. Water temps in the northeast Gulf aren't quite where you'd want them to be yet for rapid development and it looks like this disturbance will be battling wind shear and some dry air as well. I think development is unlikely at this point but it is something to watch. Most likely the main impacts will be windy and squally weather mostly for the Florida Peninsula but maybe for the Panhandle as well.

Since this is the first tropical update of the season let's take a quick look at some of the seasonal forecasts for this year. Colorado State's forecast, which has been out since mid April, calls for a slightly below average season (13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) due to the expected development of El Nino later in the summer. NOAA's forecast, which was issued last week, is similar but forecasts an average season (12-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major hurricanes). I've seen a few other forecasts and all of them have been in the same ballpark. Seasonal forecasts are interesting but we should all prepare the same for every season. This is a good time to prepare a hurricane kit and think about what storm preparations you would need to make if one came your way and where you might go if you needed to evacuate.

Again I don't have any big concerns for this weather system right now but I'll let you know if that changes. Expect the weather to be warm with humidity returning after the great dry and cool weather we had the last few days.

Have a great rest of the week.

Chris

A Couple of Tornadoes Possible for Northern AL Today, Isolated Severe Storms Elsewhere

May 20, 2023

Our spring/early summer severe weather season is winding down. There have been several days over the past few weeks where our area has been under a low risk of severe weather but since it didn't involve the possibility of tornadoes I didn't think I needed to let you know about it. The risk for today is similar to those other days except there is a 2% chance of a tornado for the Birmingham and Huntsville areas. The risk is so low that only a few of the NWS offices even bothered creating their own graphic. Nonetheless, I thought it was worth sending a quick email. You can see that a Marginal risk of severe weather covers the entire state of Alabama, a small portion of Tennessee, and most of the western Florida Panhandle. As stated the 2% tornado risk remains confined to northern Alabama with a 5% damaging wind risk being the main risk over the rest of the area as well as a 5% hail risk away from the coast. Severe timing will start in the late morning for northwest Alabama and then later for areas to the southeast so that the Florida Panhandle won't see possible severe storms until the afternoon or late evening.

Birmingham Area

Panama City Area

The last severe weather post I wrote was way back on April 29th, below is how that forecast verified. Looking quickly I would have expected to see a few more reports of severe weather up in our area and several more overall so to me the forecast was just ok.

I'll get to the tropics in another post, but the National Hurricane Center started issuing 2-Day and 7-Day outlooks on May 15th. I'll go into the details later but it looks like a developing El Nino will keep a lid on things with an "average" season most likely with regards to overall activity.

That's it for today. Keep an eye out for storms if you have plans, otherwise enjoy the weekend. It looks like we may get a break in the daily rain showers around midweek but until then expect the early summer rainy pattern to continue.

Chris