May 20, 2023
Our spring/early summer severe weather season is winding down. There have been several days over the past few weeks where our area has been under a low risk of severe weather but since it didn't involve the possibility of tornadoes I didn't think I needed to let you know about it. The risk for today is similar to those other days except there is a 2% chance of a tornado for the Birmingham and Huntsville areas. The risk is so low that only a few of the NWS offices even bothered creating their own graphic. Nonetheless, I thought it was worth sending a quick email. You can see that a Marginal risk of severe weather covers the entire state of Alabama, a small portion of Tennessee, and most of the western Florida Panhandle. As stated the 2% tornado risk remains confined to northern Alabama with a 5% damaging wind risk being the main risk over the rest of the area as well as a 5% hail risk away from the coast. Severe timing will start in the late morning for northwest Alabama and then later for areas to the southeast so that the Florida Panhandle won't see possible severe storms until the afternoon or late evening.
Birmingham Area
Panama City Area
The last severe weather post I wrote was way back on April 29th, below is how that forecast verified. Looking quickly I would have expected to see a few more reports of severe weather up in our area and several more overall so to me the forecast was just ok.
I'll get to the tropics in another post, but the National Hurricane Center started issuing 2-Day and 7-Day outlooks on May 15th. I'll go into the details later but it looks like a developing El Nino will keep a lid on things with an "average" season most likely with regards to overall activity.
That's it for today. Keep an eye out for storms if you have plans, otherwise enjoy the weekend. It looks like we may get a break in the daily rain showers around midweek but until then expect the early summer rainy pattern to continue.
Chris
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