Tropics Starting to get Busy But No Concerns at the Moment

August 17, 2023

Below is the 7-Day Tropical Outlook from this afternoon. Even though the tropics look busy there are really no concerns right now. There are a couple of tropical waves out east that may develop but they are likely to curve to the northwest (or north) and miss the Gulf if not the US altogether. The yellow spot in the Gulf will get your attention but it is not a concern for those of us east of Louisiana. Basically a low pressure system may form in the Gulf early next week (30% chance) from the combination of the northern end of a tropical wave and upper level low moving across the Greater Antilles and Bahamas. As it moves fairly fast to the west a tropical system may try to spin up which would bring impacts to the Texas/Mexico border area around midweek with maybe some impacts (much needed rain) up the Texas coast towards Louisiana. We might see some rain in the Florida Panhandle as the system tracks to our south but this doesn't look very likely right now. 

Other than the above, computer models are sniffing out the possibility of additional activity a week or so from now but it's not anything we need to talk about yet. Expect warmer and drier than normal weather to continue through the end of the month. Into September it will still be warm but maybe not as much so and we should see normal or slightly above normal precipitation return.

The expectation from seasonal forecasts is still that we should see a ramp up in tropical activity later this month and on into September. It remains to be seen if this will pan out but above average activity continues to be the consensus (not unanimous though).

Have a great weekend.

Chris