September 1, 2023
Now that Idalia has moved on the tropics remain quite busy. Thankfully out of the six systems being watched only one is a potential threat, the orange area between Africa and the islands. This weekend a tropical wave will move off of the African coast and there is a 50% chance it will develop as it moves west. Based on what the models are showing I think it is pretty likely this will develop and get close to if not impact the Lesser Antilles in about 10 days. It is not known yet whether this will curve out to sea or stay at a lower latitude and traverse the Caribbean or the Straits of Florida. Right now the out to sea track seems to be favored but it is too early to tell. If it stays more to the south we'll have to start watching for a potential threat to the East Coast or maybe the Gulf Coast. We're 10-14 days or more away from being concerned, right now it is not even in the Atlantic so it is just something to watch.
Back on August 17th I mentioned that we may see some cooler weather (not as hot) once we're into September. Below is the Climate Prediction Center Outlook I was looking at. You can see it looked like we would be a little above average as far as temps and above average for precip. For the record, this no longer looks to be the case.
Below is the updated Outlook for September. You can see that warmer than normal temps have a higher probability now. Precip looks to be about normal for the month (not shown). Expect very warm weather through at least the middle of the month with temps "cooling" a bit (but still above average) for the rest of the month. The long term Outlook is forecasting above average temps through November, with above average precipitation. We'll see how that verifies.
That's it for today. In the short term expect stormy weather near the coast but by Monday we should have a nice (and warm) holiday.
Have a great Labor Day weekend!
Chris
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