A Few Severe Storms Possible Friday and Saturday

November 30, 2023

Let's start with some good news: today is officially the last day of hurricane season!

Now let's talk about the next few days. It is going to be rainy and stormy starting tonight or tomorrow morning, lasting through Sunday or maybe even Monday as a series of weather systems pass through. For Friday there is a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for parts of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle with a 2% chance of a tornado and 5% chance of damaging winds. Severe storm timing will likely be late morning or early afternoon through late Friday and early Saturday morning with the threat starting and ending earlier farther west. After a break Saturday morning the threat shifts to the east a bit as you can see in the Day 3 Outlook. Expect another round of potentially severe storms (isolated tornadoes and damaging winds) starting around midday Saturday lasting into the evening. The severe potential may be a little higher on Saturday so we may see a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) area issued tomorrow or Saturday morning for Saturday. If the risk is upgraded the tornado risk may increase to 5% and the damaging wind risk to maybe 15% which would equate to one or two more severe storms in a given area on Saturday compared to Friday.

Day 2 (7 a.m. Friday through 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 (7 a.m. Saturday through 7 a.m. Sunday)

The rain will remain for Sunday at least if not into Monday near the coast but severe storms are not expected after Saturday. Three day rain totals should easily exceed 2" for most areas near the coast with 3-4" or more possible in some areas and totals closer to 1" up through Alabama and Tennessee.

Regarding the last severe weather event on the 21st there was only one severe weather report in our area and that was for a tornado near the FL/AL line north of Panama City. Hopefully we see about the same level of activity from this event.

Once the week starts expect dry weather maybe all the way into Friday or next weekend with mostly above average temps except for a few cooler days midweek.

Have a great weekend and stay safe.

Chris

Severe Weather Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

November 20, 2023

Well, we made it through another hurricane season! Other than Idalia, which thankfully made landfall in a relatively unpopulated area, there weren't any significant impacts anywhere else despite there being 19 named storms.

As we transition out of hurricane season we transition into severe weather season. This starts tonight with a cold front that will move through the area. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight risk (yellow area, risk category 2 out of 5) of severe weather tonight for most of the western portion of Alabama and a Marginal risk (dark green area, risk category 1 out of 5) extending into central Alabama and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. For tomorrow the risk area moves eastward with the southeastern half of Alabama and all of the Florida Panhandle in a Marginal risk area. There is also a narrow Slight risk area covering parts of the Alabama and Florida Panhandles where some of the stronger storms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning may still be ongoing around daybreak Tuesday.

Damaging winds will be the main threat with an isolated tornado or two also possible with the risk of these a little higher in the Slight risk areas. Timing graphics are shown below.

Mobile-Pensacola Area (note only the Day 1 Risk through 7 a.m. tomorrow is shown)

Montgomery-Birmingham Area (tonight through early afternoon Tuesday)

Destin through Panama City (Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon)

That's it for today. I don't expect any widespread significant impacts to our area from this event. I'm mainly sending this update as a reminder that severe weather season is upon us so that we keep these hazards in mind as we progress through winter and spring. With that said this is a good time to think about your sheltering plans for severe weather. 

For the next 10-14 days expect the weather to be near or slightly cooler than normal for this time of year and also maybe a bit wetter than normal. The next weather system will come through Thursday and Friday, I don't expect any severe weather with this at this time, but coastal areas may see around a half inch of rain.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

Chris