Severe Weather Possible Tonight and Tomorrow

November 20, 2023

Well, we made it through another hurricane season! Other than Idalia, which thankfully made landfall in a relatively unpopulated area, there weren't any significant impacts anywhere else despite there being 19 named storms.

As we transition out of hurricane season we transition into severe weather season. This starts tonight with a cold front that will move through the area. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight risk (yellow area, risk category 2 out of 5) of severe weather tonight for most of the western portion of Alabama and a Marginal risk (dark green area, risk category 1 out of 5) extending into central Alabama and the western most portion of the Florida Panhandle. For tomorrow the risk area moves eastward with the southeastern half of Alabama and all of the Florida Panhandle in a Marginal risk area. There is also a narrow Slight risk area covering parts of the Alabama and Florida Panhandles where some of the stronger storms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning may still be ongoing around daybreak Tuesday.

Damaging winds will be the main threat with an isolated tornado or two also possible with the risk of these a little higher in the Slight risk areas. Timing graphics are shown below.

Mobile-Pensacola Area (note only the Day 1 Risk through 7 a.m. tomorrow is shown)

Montgomery-Birmingham Area (tonight through early afternoon Tuesday)

Destin through Panama City (Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon)

That's it for today. I don't expect any widespread significant impacts to our area from this event. I'm mainly sending this update as a reminder that severe weather season is upon us so that we keep these hazards in mind as we progress through winter and spring. With that said this is a good time to think about your sheltering plans for severe weather. 

For the next 10-14 days expect the weather to be near or slightly cooler than normal for this time of year and also maybe a bit wetter than normal. The next weather system will come through Thursday and Friday, I don't expect any severe weather with this at this time, but coastal areas may see around a half inch of rain.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

Chris