Update on the Friday Severe Weather Threat

January 11, 2024

There hasn't been much of a change regarding the severe weather forecast for tomorrow. The SPC is forecasting an Enhanced risk of severe weather for much of the central to southeastern portion of Alabama. A Slight risk area extends down through the coast and across much of Florida and also westward and northward across more of Alabama. A Marginal risk area covers the rest of the northern portion of Alabama and most of Tennessee. Within the Enhanced region there is a 10% chance of a tornado including the possibility of strong (EF2 or stronger) tornadoes. Also in the Enhanced region is a narrow corridor of 30% damaging wind probabilities with winds in excess of 75mph possible. For the rest of the Enhanced area and all of the Slight area there is a 15% chance of damaging winds. Also in the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado. A 15% hail risk area covers the Enhanced region and a large portion of the Slight risk area. In TN and northern AL the main threat will be damaging winds (5% chance).

Timing still looks about the same. Showers and storms will move in from the south and west in the morning spreading to the east and northeast throughout the day. Severe storms are possible from the morning through late afternoon or early evening, ending sooner for parts west.

Day 2 Outlook (6 a.m. Friday - 6 a.m. Saturday)

Huntsville Area

Birmingham Area

Mobile - Pensacola

Destin - Panama City

I don't think the weather will be quite as bad for folks along the coast as it was Tuesday morning. The more inland areas may experience some bad storms but it seems like there is some more uncertainty for this event on Friday, especially for areas on the western and southern periphery of the Enhanced risk area, than there was for Tuesday's event. For this event the greatest threat seems to be in Georgia through South Carolina. All the same don't let your guard down.

The Mobile and Tallahassee National Weather Service offices have released preliminary information from their damage surveys of Tuesday's storms. The Mobile office identified damage consistent with EF1 tornadoes in three different areas and damage from EF0 tornadoes in 3 areas and one area that likely experienced 100 mph wind gusts. The Tallahassee office has determined that the tornado that hit Panama City Beach was an EF3. This same storm spawned another EF2 tornado in the Lynn Haven and Deer Point area. Two other tornadoes, one an EF2 and the other an EF1 were also identified. There were numerous other reports of damage throughout the FL Panhandle and AL coastal areas.

I don't have any better information regarding the cold next week but I can tell you it's going to be cold! Local media outlets and official forecasts from the NWS will be the best resource for that but let me know if you have any questions.

Stay safe and have a good weekend.

Chris