Severe Weather Possible Early Friday through Saturday

May 16, 2024

It looks like our next storm system has been delayed by a day, I had previously thought it would arrive today but now it won't move into our area until the early morning hours tonight. Along with its arrival is another chance of severe weather. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a Slight chance of severe weather for the southern third of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to about Panama City. A Marginal risk area extends to just north of Birmingham and east through the rest of the Panhandle. In the Slight risk area there is a 5% chance of a tornado, 15% chance of damaging winds, and a 5% chance of hail (15% chance in extreme southwestern Alabama). In the Marginal risk area there is a 2% chance of a tornado and a 5% chance of damaging winds and hail. Timing for the highest likelihood of severe weather seems to be from Friday afternoon through the evening. There will be a smaller chance between midnight tonight and tomorrow morning depending on how well the severe storms to our west can hold together overnight. There will also be another chance of severe weather Saturday morning through afternoon as this system exists to our east. Currently there is a Marginal risk of severe weather for Saturday, with damaging winds the most likely threat.

Heavy rain and flooding will be a risk for some areas as well through the weekend.

Day 1 Outlook (rest of today through 7 a.m. Friday)

Day 2 Outlook (7 a.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday)

Day 3 Outlook (7 a.m. Saturday - 7 a.m. Sunday)

After the current weather system leaves the area it looks like we'll have clear weather until about midweek. The extended spring we've been having looks to be over, expect temps to be at or above seasonal norms for the foreseeable future.

Below is the verification map for Monday's severe weather. It looks like the forecast was pretty good, especially for our area along the coast. There were some severe weather reports in northern AL and central TN on Tuesday as well (not shown).

I was going to write my first tropical weather update for the season this week, but I'm going to wait until NOAA releases its first seasonal hurricane forecast next week. The National Hurricane Center started issuing tropical weather outlooks yesterday and all is clear. Some East Pacific tropical activity is possible and that is always good to watch as it sometimes portends the future activity in the Caribbean. Right now there's nothing to be concerned about.

That's it for today. As always I'll let you know if there is a significant forecast change. I'm hoping that our severe weather season is coming to an end.

Have a good weekend.

Chris