Activity in the Tropics Expected to Increase Soon

July 24, 2024

A short update this morning to let you know that there are signs that we are getting close to an increase in activity in the tropics. First, there is no development expected in the Atlantic over the next 7 days so certainly no concerns. However, looking at the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook that was issued yesterday, you can see that there is a 20% chance of development indicated for weeks 2 and 3 (July 31 to August 13). This forecast is based on the expectation that environmental conditions for tropical cyclones will gradually improve in the coming days and because signals in the ensemble models, particularly the Euro, are showing an increasing probably of storm development in the areas indicated. Also, the Eastern Pacific is showing signs of possible activity in the coming week and that often portends activity in the Atlantic as you all know.

Atlantic 7-Day Outlook

Global Tropical Hazards Outlook

Once the current quiet period comes to an end we will likely not see much of a lull in activity until later in the fall. In fact, the signal is so strong that the long term precipitation outlook for August through October is for above average rainfall amounts in the Southeast driven by the expected high level of tropical cyclone activity.

Here in the southeast expect temps to get back to normal or a bit above normal as we end July and head into the first week of August. Rain chances are expected to stay a bit above normal as well.

Have a good rest of the week and a good weekend.

Chris