One System Being Watched, but the Tropics are Unusually Quiet...

August 28, 2024

The National Hurricane Center is watching one area (technically two, but the other no concern) for development in the tropics. This area has a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days but I really don't think we're going to see much from it.

I think this is the first area of interest since Ernesto. This is, in a word, strange. We are less than two weeks from peak season and the tropics should be going bonkers right now. No complaints, it's not like anyone wants a bunch of storms. Models keep showing activity 7-10 out days and beyond, but each time as the time grows closer short term development disappears. We (meteorologists, I'm only loosely in that camp) keep thinking "here we go!" only to see it fall apart again and again.

The ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), the belt of storms in the tropics that produces stormy weather and tropical waves, has been displaced a bit more to the north over Africa than usual. It is producing very healthy waves but they are emerging off the coast into hostile conditions and then largely dissipating. It is so far north in fact that the Sahara Desert is about to get a bunch of rain (relative to normal). Dust plumes from the Sahara continue to be strong as well, helping stifle development.

I've mentioned it before, but tropical cyclones need a seed system to form from, they don't just pop up from warm water (and the water remains very warm). This time of year those seeds are typically tropical waves, but they are being planted in the poor soil of cooler water and dry air farther to the north instead of the fertile soil of warm water and moist air where they should be. I don't know enough to tell you why, but there are some other anomalous weather patterns (both atmospheric and oceanic) going on across the globe, perhaps they are connected.

I do think we need to keep an eye on close in development. As we get into fall and cold fronts start pushing through (unusually for August, we've had one or two recently) and leftover energy from these can be seeds for development as well. Both the northern Gulf and the Atlantic just off the East Coast can be hot spots. It may be that this will be the main type of activity we see this year if the deep tropics don't get their act together. As it is I think the forecasts calling for a hyperactive or above average season are likely a bust. I think we will see some storms, but the high numbers look to be overblown.

That's it for today. I said a lot, but really I just wanted to send out a "no news is good news" update since it has been a while.

Have a great Labor Day weekend.

Chris